• NATURAL RESOURCES:Managing Natural Resource Wealth • POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION: Post-Conflict Risks • CHILDREN: Engaging Youth to Build Safer Communities • GOVERNANCE: Global Poverty, Weak States and Insecurity • CRIMINAL VIOLENCE: The Eurasian Drug Trade: A Challenge to Regional Security • GENDER: Women in Armed Opposition Groups in Africa • DEVELOPMENT: Development, Democracy, and Mass Killings • ARMED CONFLICT: Deaths in Wars and Conflicts in the 20th Century • PEACE OPERATIONS: NATO in Afghanistan: A Test of the Transatlantic Alliance • ARMED GROUPS: External Assistance: Enabler of Insurgent Success • CONFLICT RESOLUTION: DDR During the Transition in Burundi • TERRORISM: Female Suicide Bombers: Dying for Equality? NATURAL RESOURCES Managing Natural Resource Wealth United States Institute of Peace A postwar environment where hydrocarbon and mineral extraction has been maintained throughout the conflict period presents both problems and opportunities. Natural resource-rich countries demonstrate a higher than average risk both of experiencing conflict and of returning to conflict in the decade following a peace agreement. The following problems are often found in these countries: Powerful and corrupt vested interests, for example in oil ministries, state-owned companies, the army, and the highest levels of government; Heavy government debt burdens as a result of bilateral and commercial loans taken out on "war terms" and offset against future resource income; Disputes about subregional control and distribution of resource wealth feeding into fundamental questions of the type of state; the existence of a state; or the extent of regional autonomy; Militias/insurgents controlling or influencing resource-rich areas or pipeline routes; Damaged oil fields, pipelines, and mines; Grievances and human rights issues relating to forced expulsion of people from resource-rich areas by military or rebel forces; Long-term concessions sold on terms that reflect the risk of a war economy but are unfavorable to the country in times of peace; An unattractive market for international private sector investment. This report analyzes the particular challenges of stabilization and reconstruction missions in countries rich in hydrocarbons and minerals and provides lessons from the recent experience of countries such as Iraq, Sudan, Angola, Liberia, and Afghanistan. It offers recommendations for the U.S. government and others involved in natural resource-rich countries emerging from conflict and also to the extractive industry companies and banking sector that play a critical role in these states. Continue Reading More on Natural Resources and Armed Conflict POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION Post-Conflict Risks Centre for the Study of African Economies Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and risk reduction. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be highly effective in the economic recovery. In this paper we concentrate on the other challenge, risk reduction. The postconflict peace is typically fragile: around half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. Both external actors and the post-conflict government must therefore give priority to reducing the risk of conflict. Our statistical results suggest that economic development does substantially reduce risks, but it takes a long time. We also find evidence that UN peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risk of renewed war. The effect is large: doubling expenditure reduces the risk from 40% to 31%. In contrast to these results we cannot find any systematic influence of elections on the reduction of war risk. Therefore, post-conflict elections should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms for increasing the durability of the postconflict peace. Based on these results we suggest that peace appears to depend upon an external military presence sustaining a gradual economic recovery, with political design playing a somewhat subsidiary role. Since there is a simple and statistically strong relationship between the severity of post-conflict risks and the level of income at the end of the conflict this provides a clear and uncontroversial principle for resource allocation: resources per capita should be approximately inversely proportional to the level of income in the post-conflict country. Continue reading More on Peace Operations and Post-Conflict Reconstruction CHILDREN AND ARMED CONFLICT Engaging Youth to Build Safer Communities Center for Strategic and International Studies Post-conflict environments are inherently insecure. Although cease-fires and peace agreements formally signal the end of large-scale fighting, periodic violence usually continues, and communities suffer in the absence of reliable and effective security forces and rule of law. These environments tend also to be home to large populations of youth; some perpetuate violence, others contribute to rebuilding, and still others are marginalized. Yet the youth group in its entirety represents enormous untapped potential that could help in the reconstruction process, particularly with regard to improving security. Unfortunately, youth are typically viewed as part of the problem and not considered as possible positive actors. The CSIS Post-Conflict Reconstruction (PCR) Project posits that youth can play a constructive role in building safer communities. The process of working with youth communities to increase safety includes reducing one potential driver of conflict—youth—by providing opportunities for those who might otherwise engage in violence and crime, as well as engaging youth in specific programs to help improve the safety of communities. From taking part in foot and bicycle patrols, neighborhood watches, and early warning systems to providing crime reduction education, prevention strategies, and escort services, youth have the capacity to contribute to safety and security when official mechanisms are absent, ineffective, or in need of extra support. This report recommends that these opportunities should be included in the spectrum of activities in which post-conflict youth could engage. In addition to reviewing methodologies and specific programs, the report highlights core principles that have led to long-term success with youth in helping build safer communities. Continue reading More on Children and Armed Conflict GOVERNANCE Global Poverty, Weak States and Insecurity Brookings Institution The world’s weakest states are poor states that lack the capacity to fulfill essential government functions, chiefly: 1) to secure their population from violent conflict; 2) to competently meet the basic human needs of their population (i.e. food, health, education), and; 3) to govern legitimately with the acceptance of a majority of their population. The Brookings-CGD project defines weak states as poor states that suffer from significant “gaps” in security, performance and legitimacy. We classify states as “weak” if they meet the “low income” standard and exhibit “gaps” in at least two of the three fundamental government functions. This paper identifies fifty-two weak states in the world, and expounds on the multifaceted reasons this weakness poses a global security challenge. These states are high-risk zones that in a rapidly globalizing world may eventually, often indirectly, pose significant risks to far-away countries. Transnational “spillover” from these states includes conflict, terrorism, disease, and environmental degradation. Efforts to illuminate the complex relationship between poverty and insecurity may be unwelcome to those who want assurance that global poverty and U.S. national security are unrelated. However, we ignore or obscure the implications of global poverty for global security at our peril. Continue reading More on Governance and Security CRIMINAL VIOLENCE The Eurasian Drug Trade: A Challenge to Regional Security Central Asia Caucasus Institute The security of Eurasia can no longer be understood in separation from the drug trade. Given the importance of the region to the United States, the adverse effect of the drug trade is also bound to affect U.S. interests in Central Asia. SINCE the end of the cold war, the need to widen the concept of security and distinguish between “hard” and “soft” security threats has been increasingly accepted, but the implementation of strategies to face soft security threats has been less prominent. Meanwhile, non-traditional and often trans-national threats to security have gained in importance, primarily in developing and post-communist areas. Among these, the trade in illicit drugs arguably carries the largest societal, political, and economic consequences. It threatens the fabric of societies through addiction, crime, and disease. It exacerbates corruption in already weak states, impairing their economic and political functioning. Through its linkages to insurgency and terrorism, it is an increasing threat to regional and international security in a traditional, military sense. As such, the drug trade affects both hard and soft security. Continue reading More on Criminal Violence GENDER AND SECURITY Women in Armed Opposition Groups in Africa and the Promotion of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights Geneva Call // Program for the Study of International Organization(s) What role do women leaders within armed opposition groups play in promoting or violating international humanitarian law and human rights law during situations of armed conflict? Are there ways for national and international humanitarian and human rights actors to work more effectively and successfully with such women to promote these laws during armed conflict? In addition, during the tenuous periods of peace negotiations, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), and the emergence of new forms of power-sharing governments in the aftermath of conflict, what are the key human rights issues that arise for women associated with armed opposition groups? Finally, what are the ways for such women to work in conjunction with NGOs and civil society organizations to address some of the key issues of violence and inequality that propelled many of them to join the armed opposition in the first place? During November 2005, a workshop was held is Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to address these questions, learn more about the experiences of women and girls within armed opposition groups in Africa during and after armed conflict, and put forward recommendations regarding their potential roles in promoting international humanitarian law and human rights law in confl ict and postconflict periods. Continue reading More on Gender and Security DEVELOPMENT Development, Democracy, and Mass Killings Center for Global Development The 20th century closed with many lamenting civilian killings by the state as its greatest evil. By one estimate, governments killed as many as 170 million civilians from 1900 to 1987 - more than all the soldiers killed in the wars in the 20th century. This new working paper, co-authored by CGD non-resident fellow William Easterly, explores the relationship between the occurrence and cruelty of episodes of mass killing and the levels of development and democracy across countries and over time using a newly assembled dataset spanning from 1820 to 1998. The study finds that massacres are more likely at intermediate levels of income and less likely at very high levels of democracy. The study does not find evidence of a linear relationship between democracy and the probability of mass killings. In the 20th century, discrete improvements in democracy are systematically associated with less cruel massacre episodes. Episodes at the highest levels of democracy and income involve relatively fewer victims. Continue reading More on Development and Security ARMED CONFLICT Deaths in Wars and Conflicts in the 20th Century Clingendael Institute This monograph, which is also published by the Peace Studies Program, Center for International Studies, Cornell University contains: a data section, tabulating both civilian and combatant deaths due to all causes for 157 events between 1945 and 2000; an itemized total sum for deaths in wars and conflicts "killed or allowed to die by human decision" of approximately 231 million for the 100 years of the 20th Century; summarizes the events that took place in Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo since 1990, as well as provides sections on the Congo, and the Darfur province of Sudan between 2003 and June 2006; analyzes the nature of the response or non-response to these events by the international community; and, finally, concludes with an analysis of the problem of international intervention. Continue reading More on Armed Conflict PEACE OPERATIONS NATO in Afghanistan: A Test of the Transatlantic Alliance Congressional Research Service U.N. Security Council resolutions govern NATO’s responsibilities. The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) faces formidable obstacles: shoring up a weak government in Kabul; using military capabilities in a distant country with rugged terrain; and rebuilding a country devastated by war and troubled by a resilient narcotics trade. NATO’s mission statement lays out the essential elements of the task of stabilizing and rebuilding the country: train the Afghan army, police, and judiciary; support the government in counter-narcotics efforts; develop a market infrastructure; and suppress the Taliban. Although the allies agree on ISAF’s mission, they differ on how to accomplish it. Some allies do not want their forces to engage in combat operations. None wants to engage directly in destruction of poppy fields in countering the drug trade; how to support the Afghan government in this task — largely through training the police — is proving to be a difficult undertaking. In the wake of the Abu Ghraib scandal and criticism of U.S. practices at Guantanamo, the allies are insisting on close observation of international law in dealing with prisoners taken in Afghanistan. Continue reading More on Peace Operations and Post-Conflict Reconstruction ARMED GROUPS External Assistance: Enabler of Insurgent Success U.S. Army War College Victorious insurgencies are exceptional because the strong usually beat the weak. But all power is relative, and if an insurgency has access to external assistance, such assistance can alter the insurgent-government power ratio even to the point where the insurgency becomes the stronger side. To be sure, external assistance is no guarantee of insurgent success, but there are few if any examples of unassisted insurgent victories against determined and resourceful governments. Much of the key theoretical literature on the phenomenon of weak victories over the strong discounts or altogether ignores the importance of external assistance. However, even the most committed and cunning insurgency cannot hope to win without material resources. A rebellion must have arms. The strong correlation between external assistance and insurgent success does not diminish the insurgent requirement for superiority in such intangibles as will, strategy, organization, morale, and discipline. External assistance can favorably, even decisively, alter the material power ratio between an insurgency and an enemy government or foreign occupier. For either the insurgent side or the counterinsurgent side, material strength unguided by sound strategy and unsupported by sufficient willingness to fight and die is a recipe for almost certain defeat. But most insurgencies seek foreign help for good reason. Continue reading More on Armies, Paramilitaries, Non-State Armed Groups CONFLICT RESOLUTION Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration During the Transition in Burundi: A Technical Analysis Institute for Security Studies The process of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) as part of the reform of security sector institutions in the context of peace operations, either under the auspices of the United Nations or otherwise, is a relatively new and challenging field. Although the international community has succeeded in some instances, it has not been consistent. This is partly due to inherent difficulties in engaging with sometimes sensitive and controversial institutions, political processes and personalities in conflict or post-conflict settings. The authors begin with an historical overview, and then examine the political management of the crisis in Burundi, the role players and the political parties. They attempt to address the very difficult process of agreement and the installation of the transitional government, which resulted in the deployment of South African Protection Support Detachment (SAPSD), later the African Union Mission in Burundi (AMIB) and finally the United Nations Mission in Burundi (ONUB). They emphasise the importance of a negotiated settlement where the Burundian authorities and role players were encouraged to make their own decisions, rather than being forced to accept external imposed judgements. Continue reading More on Conflict Resolution and Peacemaking TERRORISM Female Suicide Bombers: Dying for Equality? Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies Over the last few years, women suicide bombers have earned the dubious distinction of appearing more newsworthy than their male counterparts. While investigative reporting on a male suicide bomber is often extensive, coverage of a female suicide bomber seems to result in more widespread media exposure. Between 1985 and 2006, there have been more than 220 women suicide bombers, representing nearly 15 percent of the overall number of actual suicide bombers around the world and those intercepted in the final stages before the attack. The enlistment of women from Belgium, India, Iraq, Turkey, and the West Bank territories for suicide attacks in 2006 indicates that their role continues, and may in fact represent a growing phenomenon. The involvement of women in suicide bombings spawns a host of related questions. Are women’s motivations and performances different in comparison to those of their male counterparts? Are they more (or less) determined and dedicated to the cause? Are they more radical or extreme than the men in their perceptions towards the path their struggle has taken? Are they more emotional about it? Do they need a longer or shorter period of preparation for the mission? Are they involved in the operational decision-making process? Do they aspire to be more involved in determining the strategy of their mission? Continue reading More on Terrorism Compiled by Robert Hartfiel Human Security Research is produced by the Human Security Centre at the Liu Institute for Global Issues at UBC. The Human Security Centre produces the annual Human Security Report and is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. For more information on human security visit the Human Security Gateway, an online research and information database that contains a broad range of human security-related resources. 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