• SMALL ARMS: Weaponomics: The Economics of Small Arms • RESOURCES: African Security, Commodities and Development • CONFLICT RESOLUTION: Peace in Northern Uganda? • LANDMINES: Landmine Monitor Report 2006: Toward a Mine-Free World • DISPLACEMENT: Forced Displacement as a Result of the West Bank Wall • DEVELOPMENT: Engaging with Fragile States: Low-Income Countries Under Stress • HUMAN RIGHTS: Do Human Rights Violations Cause Internal Conflict? • HEALTH: Chronic Emergency: Health and Human Rights in Eastern Burma • PEACE OPERATIONS: Peacekeeping-Peacebuilding: Preparing for the Future • CHILDREN: Victims, Perpetrators or Heroes? Child Soldiers before the ICC • GOVERNANCE: The Cost of Failing States and the Limits to Sovereignty • CRIMINAL VIOLENCE: Afghanistan Opium Survey 2006: Executive Summary SMALL ARMS Weaponomics: The Economics of Small Arms Centre for the Study of African Economies The small arms market has received considerable attention since the end of the Cold War. Small arms may be viewed as the specific capital of rebel groups yet no statistical analysis of this market for weapons has yet taken place due to the absence of data. This paper introduces the first effort to quantitatively document the small arms market by collating field reports and journalist accounts to produce a cross-country time-series price index of Kalashnikov assault rifles. The new data is used to quantitatively investigate the nature of the small arms market. A simultaneous equations demand and supply model of the small arms market is developed and empirically estimated to identify the key determinants of assault rifle prices. Variables which proxy the effective height of trade barriers for illicit trade, both within and between countries are consistently significant in weapon price determination. Neighbours’ average military expenditure is also a robust predictor of cheap weapon prices. When controlling for other factors, the collapse of the Soviet Union does not have as large an impact on weapon prices as is generally believed. Continue Reading More on Small Arms, Light Weapons and Landmines RESOURCES African Security, Commodities and Development Royal United Services Institute It is often argued that Africa’s primary commodities fuel African conflicts and impede the continent’s development. In this Royal United Services Institute report, produced in association with the Johannesburg based Brenthurst Foundation, several leading international experts on Africa examine the relationship between African security, commodities and development. They investigate the facts behind both academic and popular misconceptions about Africa’s commodities, such as the ‘greed versus grievance’ argument and the ‘blood diamonds’ debate, the role of international actors and the implications of the rise of China and India for African security and development. Continue reading More on Natural Resources and Armed Conflict CONFLICT RESOLUTION Peace in Northern Uganda? Crisis Group Peace talks in Northern Uganda have shown surprising promise, but they will need a new approach to move significantly further. Peace in Northern Uganda?, the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the steps taken and the hurdles ahead in the negotiations between the Ugandan government and the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). It calls for a new two-phase mediation strategy to move beyond the current talks led by Dr Riek Machar, vice president of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS). The GoSS-led peace talks evolved rapidly over five months and now offer the best chance to end a twenty-year civil war that has ravaged northern Uganda and spilled into Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Fresh reports of small numbers of LRA troops beginning to arrive at designated assembly areas in Southern Sudan offer great hope. But a more systematic and institutionally supported approach is needed to shepherd the talks forward. The GoSS priority is to get the LRA out of Sudan, not supervise a difficult Ugandan national reconciliation for which it lacks the capacity and resources. Continue reading More on Conflict Resolution and Peacemaking LANDMINES Landmine Monitor Report 2006: Toward a Mine-Free World International Campaign to Ban Landmines More land was demined in 2005 than ever before, but global funding for mine action decreased for the first time, raising concerns about future progress in eradicating mines and efforts to meet the needs of the increasing number of survivors, according to Landmine Monitor Report 2006: Toward a Mine-Free World. Landmine Monitor reports on the global landmine situation and scrutinizes the implementation of and compliance with the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty. More than 470,000 landmines, including around 450,000 antipersonnel mines, and more than 3.75 million explosive devices were removed and destroyed. “Record demining was reported in 2005,” said Mr. Stuart Maslen of Norwegian People’s Aid, Landmine Monitor’s Mine Action Editor. “But landmines remain in over 78 countries and seven territories. Global mine action funding will need to be sustained if states are to complete mine clearance in time.” Guatemala and Suriname completed clearance of all mined areas in 2005. Twenty-nine countries still have to meet deadlines set down by the Mine Ban Treaty to clear all antipersonnel mines on their territory by 2009 or 2010. Thirteen are not on track to meet this target, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia, Mozambique, and Thailand. Continue reading More on Small Arms, Light Weapons and Landmines DISPLACEMENT Displaced by the Wall: Forced Displacement as a Result of the West Bank Wall and its Associated Regime Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre // Badil Resource Center for Palestinian Residency and Refugee Rights Thousands of Palestinians have been forced to leave their homes as a direct result of the Wall built by Israel in the occupied West Bank, according to a new study. In East Jerusalem alone, tens of thousands of people have been forced to change their place of residence as a direct result of the construction of the Wall, concludes the study which for the first time comprehensively documents displacement caused by the West Bank Wall in the Jerusalem area. The study reveals that 17 per cent of those who changed their place of residence in recent years did so as a direct result of the construction of the Wall. Restriction of movement and access to services and basic goods resulting from the construction of the Wall has been the most important factor inducing forced displacement in East Jerusalem. Close to 90 per cent of households on the eastern side of the Wall are cut off from health services in the centre of Jerusalem. The study shows that the Wall also causes serious disruptions in Palestinian family life: over 20 per cent of households have been split since the beginning of construction in 2002. The study suggests that the number of internally displaced Palestinians is likely to grow further: as many as 64 per cent of Palestinians in East Jerusalem are considering changing their place of residence. Continue reading More on Refugees and Internally Displaced People DEVELOPMENT Engaging with Fragile States: World Bank Support to Low-Income Countries Under Stress World Bank // Independent Evaluation Group The number of fragile states has shown little change and remains high at 26 in 2006, according to a new report from the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG). With their multiplicity of chronic problems, low-income countries under stress (LICUS) pose some of the toughest development challenges. Most have poor governance and are embroiled in extended internal conflicts or are struggling through tenuous post-conflict transitions. They face similar hurdles of widespread lack of security, fractured relations among societal groups, significant corruption, breakdown in the rule of law, absence of mechanisms for generating legitimate power and authority, a huge backlog of investment needs, and limited government resources for development. Past international engagement with these countries has generally failed to yield significant improvements. While governance has improved in some countries, such as Angola or Tajikistan, the continuation of the overall negative trend could pose a serious risk to regional and global security, warns IEG. The report argues that in order to avoid deepening poverty in fragile states with its adverse spillover effects — such as conflict, terrorism and epidemic diseases — the international community and the Bank need to find more effective ways of assisting these countries. Continue reading More on Development and Security HUMAN RIGHTS Do Human Rights Violations Cause Internal Conflict? Carleton University // Norman Paterson School of International Affairs This article outlines a human rights framework for analyzing violent internal conflict, by “translating” social-scientific findings about conflict risk factors into human rights language. Discrimination and violations of social and economic rights appear to function as underlying causes, creating the deep grievances and group identities that may, under some circumstances, motivate collective violence. Violations of civil and political rights, by contrast, are more clearly identifiable as direct triggers. Abuse of personal integrity is associated with conflict escalation, with intermediately repressive regimes most at risk. Denial of political participation rights is associated with internal conflict insofar that full democracies experience less conflict, but democratization itself is dangerous, because regime transition is also a major risk factor. Continue reading More on Human Rights HEALTH Chronic Emergency: Health and Human Rights in Eastern Burma Back Pack Health Worker Team This report is the result of systematic surveys in communities of internally displaced persons living in the eastern conflict zones of Burma and provides the first glimpse of their health status. The report shows that decades of civil war have decimated the health of these populations, with standard health indicators ranking this area amongst the worst in the world. The report also demonstrates that human rights abuses such as forced relocation, violence, forced labor, and the destruction of food and crops are common and serve as major drivers of the health crisis. According to statistics from international agencies such as UNICEF, Burma’s national figures for infant and child mortality already rank amongst the worst in Southeast Asia. Despite the scale of the crisis, the junta has instead exacerbated the situation, launching the biggest offensive in eastern Burma for a decade in February of this year, displacing an additional 18,000 people. The BPHWT report concludes that without addressing the factors which drive this health crisis, such as the human rights abuses and inability to access healthcare services, there can be no sustainable solution to this chronic emergency. Continue reading More on Health and Security PEACE OPERATIONS Peacekeeping-Peacebuilding: Preparing for the Future Finnish Institute of International Affairs Once upon a time, peacekeeping operations tended to be calm and consensual. There was a peace to be kept, and the peacekeepers were invited to do so by the parties to an already resolved conflict. Today’s peacekeeping may take an entirely different form. There is less clarity about peace, the conflict might even be ongoing, with no clear views on who the parties to it actually are. Safeguarding civilians and the peacekeepers themselves may necessitate more use of force than before. Not taking sides may be difficult. The “international community” is called upon to help in diverse situations of tragedy and emergency. The international community, too, seems splintered into a multiplicity of different players, each of whom represents – well, just who exactly? In essence, instead of keeping the peace, the international community is invited to participate in the building of peace. But how can this be achieved? Is peacekeeping being transformed into peacebuilding? What other forms will peacekeeping take in the future? Who is doing what, who should be doing what? How should one best prepare for tomorrow’s peacekeeping operations? Continue reading More on Peace Operations and Post-Conflict Reconstruction CHILDREN Victims, Perpetrators or Heroes? Child Soldiers before the International Criminal Court Redress Trust The International Criminal Court broke new ground by charging Ugandan and Congolese warlords with recruiting or using children in hostilities. However, this also means that the Court faces new and difficult challenges to ensure child-sensitive investigations, trials and reparations. Thomas Lubanga, currently in custody in The Hague, has been charged solely with conscripting, enlisting or using children under the age of fifteen in hostilities. Joseph Kony, Vincent Otti and Okot Odhiambo, senior commanders of the Lord’s Resistance Army operating in northern Uganda, have been also charged with forcibly recruiting or using children amongst other crimes. While the Prosecutor’s focus on child soldiers is commended, the report highlights the numerous other crimes suffered by children, including child soldiers. These must also be prosecuted, as must the crimes suffered by victim communities into which child soldiers are seeking to reintegrate. Singling out child soldiers against other child victims or victims from their communities, renders reintegration more difficult and raises complex questions regarding reparations. Continue reading More on Children and Armed Conflict GOVERNANCE The Cost of Failing States and the Limits to Sovereignty Centre for the Study of African Economies In this paper, the authors estimate the costs of a ‘failing state’. In part, such costs are of interest because they are a necessary first step towards a cost-benefit analysis of remedies. However, the costs of a failing state also have a more fundamental significance. Although the term ‘failing state’ is sometimes used loosely, its distinctive meaning is that the government of such a state should not have the usual untrammelled rights of national sovereignty. The basis for overriding sovereignty is that a failing state is one which inflicts costs that are sufficiently large as to warrant international intervention. There are three bases for such a dilution of sovereignty, each resting on a distinct set of costs. In Section 2 we set out these distinctions. The following three sections quantify each of these costs in turn. Section 6 draws the implications. Continue reading More on Governance and Security CRIMINAL VIOLENCE Afghanistan Opium Survey 2006: Executive Summary United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Either Afghanistan destroys opium or opium will destroy Afghanistan, President Hamid Karzai has warned. As this survey shows, we are coming dangerously close to the second option. This year, opium cultivation rose to 165,000 hectares, a 59% increase over 2005. An unprecedented 6,100 tons of opium has been harvested, making Afghanistan virtually the sole supplier to the world. “Revenue from the harvest will be over three billion dollars this year, making a handful of criminals and corrupt officials extremely rich" Mr Costa said. "This money is also dragging the rest of Afghanistan into a bottomless pit of destruction and despair." This year the largest cultivation took place in the South, especially in Helmand and Kandahar provinces, where governance has collapsed under the weight of insurgency, drugs, crime and corruption. In other provinces, like Badakhshan in the north-east, opium crop increases are the fault of greedy officials and arrogant warlords. Around the country, the number of people involved in opium cultivation increased by almost a third to 2.9 million -- 12.6% of the total population. Only six of the country’s 34 provinces are opium-free. They are also the country’s poorest regions (mostly in the East). Cultivation fell this year in eight provinces, mainly in the more stable north. Urgent political, strategic and health measures are needed in response. Continue reading More on Criminal Violence Compiled by Robert Hartfiel Human Security Research is produced by the Human Security Centre at the Liu Institute for Global Issues at UBC. The Human Security Centre produces the annual Human Security Report and is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. For more information on human security visit the Human Security Gateway, an online research and information database that contains a broad range of human security-related resources. To subscribe to Human Security Research , send an email to hsc.list@ubc.ca with 'subscribe HS Research' in the subject field or click here. To unsubscribe, please reply to this message with 'unsubscribe HS Research' in the subject heading. |
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