• ARMED CONFLICT: What's in a Figure? Estimating Recurrence of Civil War • POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION: Demobilization and Reintegration • CHILDREN: How Donors are Failing Children in Conflict-Affected Fragile States • REFUGEES AND DISPLACEMENT: Global Overview of Trends and Developments in 2006 • DEVELOPMENT: Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races? • GOVERNANCE: Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies • ENVIRONMENT: National Security and the Threat of Climate Change • POST-CONFLICT: The Aftermath of Civil War • RESOURCES: Oil Revenue Transparency: A Strategic Component of U.S. Energy Security Policy • CONFLICT PREVENTION: Preventing Insurgencies After Major Combat Operations • ARMED GROUPS: Al Qaeda, Armed Groups and the Paradox of Engagement • ARMED CONFLICT: Learning About Counterinsurgency ARMED CONFLICT What's in a Figure? Estimating Recurrence of Civil War Chr. Michelsen Institute It is often said that a country that has experienced civil war has nearly a 50 per cent risk of sliding back into war within five years. This has been widely cited in the academic literature and in policy debates, including in UN documents and preparatory work for the establishment of the UN Peacebuilding Commission. A closer examination of the origins, circulation and establishment of this figure gives a glimpse into the process whereby academic findings are converted into conventional wisdom and effectively inserted into the policy debate, even though the findings themselves are unstable. In this case, the authors of the original figure revised their initial 50 per cent estimate down to around 20 per cent only four years after their first study, but the change was barely noted. This article examines the process whereby the findings were made, and offers a note of caution about the wholesale adoption of such figures by policymakers and academics. Continue Reading More on Armed Conflict POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION Demobilization and Reintegration Columbia University // Stanford University Since 1989, international efforts to end protracted conflicts in Africa, Latin America, and Asia have included sustained investments in the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of combatants from the warring parties. Yet, while policy analysts have debated the organizational factors that contribute to a successful DDR program and scholars have reasoned about the macroconditions that facilitate successful peace-building, little is known about the factors that account for successful reintegration at the micro level. Using a new dataset of ex-combatants in Sierra Leone, this paper analyzes, for the first time, individual level determinants of demobilization and reintegration. Past participation in an abusive military faction is the strongest predictor of difficulty in achieving social reintegration. On economic and political reintegration, we find that wealthier and more educated combatants face greater difficulties. Ideologues, men, and younger fighters are the most likely to retain strong ties to their factions. Most importantly, we find little evidence at the micro level that internationally-funded programs facilitated demobilization and reintegration. Continue reading More on Peace Operations and Post-Conflict Reconstruction CHILDREN Last in Line, Last in School: How Donors are Failing Children in Conflict-Affected Fragile States Save the Children Half of the world’s out-of-school population – 39 million children – live in conflict-affected fragile states (CAFS), even though these countries make up just 13 per cent of the world’s population. The numbers of out-of-school children are disproportionately high for a number of reasons. Almost all CAFS are low-income countries, some lack the political will to provide education, and conflict almost inevitably leaves national institutions – including education authorities – in disarray. However, one of the major factors is that these countries are underfunded by donors. Even compared with children in other low-income countries (LICs), children in CAFS are losing out on the chance to go to school. These children are being denied the transformative effects that education can bring. Education can increase children’s resistance to forced recruitment and exploitation, such as forced prostitution. Education also teaches key life skills, such as landmine awareness, protection from HIV and AIDS and other diseases. The benefits of an education can be passed on to future generations – it is proven to lower infant mortality. It contributes to economic growth, peace and stability, and promotes critical thinking in citizens and their ability to hold local and national systems to account, paving the way for good governance and institution-building. Continue reading More on Children and Armed Conflict REFUGEES AND IDPS Internal Displacement: Global Overview of Trends and Developments in 2006 Norwegian Refugee Council//Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre The Global Overview provides an analysis of the worldwide internal displacement crisis, re? ecting developments in 2006. It is a unique report in that it is the only comprehensive and regularly published account of the global internal displacement situation. In addition to an analysis of developments at the global level, the report also provides overviews of regional and thematic trends. By publishing this report, the IDMC hopes to raise awareness of the still often-overlooked plight of some 25 million people internally displaced by con? ict and persecution and to draw attention to existing gaps in response at both the national and international level. National governments have the primary responsibility to prevent forced displacement and to ensure that the displaced are provided with full access to their rights. Yet, as this report shows, the very governments responsible for protecting their citizens from displacement and other violations of their human rights often fail to ensure their protection and are themselves involved in forcibly uprooting civilians. This year’s Global Overview therefore has a particular focus on the role of national authorities, highlighting situations where progress was made in addressing internal displacement as well those where signi? cant gaps remain. Continue reading More on Refugees and Internally Displaced People DEVELOPMENT Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races? Centre for the Study of African Economies Using global data for the period 1960–99, we model military expenditure. Neighbours’ military spending and development aid are important determinants of military expenditure. An implication of the model is that there are regional arms races which are fuelled by aid. Potentially, aid is encouraging a ‘regional public bad’. There may, however, be an offsetting public good effect if military spending deters rebellions. In a simultaneous equation model, we find no deterrence effect of spending on the risk of civil war. Hence, there appears to be no regional public good effect offsetting the public bad arising from a neighbourhood arms race. Continue reading More on Development and Security GOVERNANCE Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies World Bank This paper suggests a new factor that makes civil war more likely: the inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. But while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political credibility support these conclusions. Continue reading More on Governance and Security ENVIRONMENT National Security and the Threat of Climate Change CNA Corporation Global climate change presents a serious national security threat which could impact Americans at home, impact United States military operations and heighten global tensions, according to a new study released by a blue-ribbon panel of retired admirals and generals from all branches of the armed services. The study, “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” explores ways projected climate change is a threat multiplier in already fragile regions, exacerbating conditions that lead to failed states — the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism. The CNA Corporation brought together eleven retired three-star and four-star admirals and generals to provide advice, expertise and perspective on the impact of climate change. CNAC writers and researchers compiled the report under the board's direction and review. The report includes several formal findings: Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America's national security; Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world; Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world; Climate change, national security and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges. Continue reading More on Natural Resources and Armed Conflict POST-CONFLICT The Aftermath of Civil War World Bank Using an "event-study" methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved. Continue reading More on Peace Operations and Post-Conflict Reconstruction RESOURCES Oil Revenue Transparency: A Strategic Component of U.S. Energy Security Policy Global Witness A global drive towards energy revenue transparency is moving forward today. This initiative presents a low cost, high-impact opportunity for both the United States and international oil companies to combat corruption, improve investment climates, and contribute to the development of poor nations. The U.S. can also enhance its energy security by incorporating energy revenue transparency as a key component of its international energy policy. Furthermore, the U.S. should engage China, India, Russia, and Brazil as key partners in the setting of energy revenue transparency as a global standard. Continue reading More on Natural Resources and Armed Conflict CONFLICT PREVENTION Preventing Insurgencies After Major Combat Operations RAND Corporation Insurgencies are extremely difficult to defeat once they become entrenched. Counterinsurgency campaigns require extensive military, diplomatic, and economic resources over prolonged periods of time, and ultimately require resolution of some of the underlying political grievances that led the insurgents to take up arms. A better approach is to prevent insurgencies from arising in the first place, and to prevent nascent insurgencies from taking root in local populations. Since the wide range of U.S. global interests makes it likely to continue to intervene abroad, the pressing policy question for the United States is therefore how to minimize the development of insurgencies during foreign interventions. This paper seeks to answer that question. A wide literature exists on ways to prevent the resurgence of conflict after interventions, but these mostly focus on cases that involve civil wars, internal conflict, or state collapse. By contrast, little work has been done on how to prevent conflict in the aftermath of major combat operations, since it is generally assumed that victory in major combat means an end to hostilities. Yet as recent U.S. operations in Afghanistan and particularly in Iraq demonstrate, major combat operations that lead to regime change can create insurgencies that are fuelled by opponents of the new political order. Continue reading More on Conflict Prevention ARMED GROUPS Al Qaeda, Armed Groups and the Paradox of Engagement Harvard University // Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research States are the primary political entities challenged by armed groups. States become legitimate in part by being able to maintain political stability within a given territory. If a state cannot effectively police its internal borders and prevent threats from armed groups, it loses legitimacy. So states normally seek to suppress armed groups within their territory. Some states will succeed in these efforts, others will fail. It is only when they fail that they will consider the option of engagement. Notwithstanding the overthrow of the Taliban regime and the expulsion of Al Qaeda from its base in Afghanistan, five years on the United States war against Al Qaeda has reached a stalemate. Osama bin Laden remains at large, Al Qaeda has not been defeated, and there is growing speculation that the organization possibly cannot be defeated, at least in the near term. Opposition to the United States and support for Al Qaeda have both increased over the past several years. Moreover, Al Qaeda has learned how to disperse and survive in response to US military pressures, and it is arguably a more formidable adversary, and harder to annihilate, than in the past. Continue reading More on Armies, Paramilitaries, Non-State Armed Groups ARMED CONFLICT Learning About Counterinsurgency U.S. Army Combined Arms Center There are a number of reasons why insurgency—the use of subversion and armed conflict by an organized movement to overthrow a constitutional government—has become a form of conflict much in evidence at the start of the twenty-first century, and why it is unlikely to become less so in the years immediately ahead. Among the most obvious reasons are the erosion of the sovereignty of nation-states, the increase in the number of failed or failing states, the rise in intra-state conflict, the advent of transnational insurgency, and the perceived ability of terrorists to achieve their aims—“to coerce or intimidate governments or societies to achieve political, religious or ideological objectives.” Equally obvious—to insurgents, at least—is the technological battle- field superiority of the world’s most powerful armed forces, and the resultant folly of taking on such armed forces on the conventional battlefield. Even if general Sir Rupert Smith may be overstating the case by declaring that “war no longer exists,” he is surely right that war off the conventional battlefield, or “war amongst the people,” is by far the more likely activity. There is, of course, nothing new about insurgency—the nineteenth and twentieth centuries provide plenty of examples of this type of warfare—and, therefore, no shortage of opportunities to learn lessons. Continue reading More on Armed Conflict Compiled by Robert Hartfiel Human Security Research is produced by the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Human Security Report Project is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. For more information on human security visit the Human Security Gateway, an online research and information database that contains a broad range of human security-related resources. To subscribe to Human Security Research, send an email to hsilist@sfu.ca with 'subscribe HS Research' in the subject field, or click here. To unsubscribe, please reply to this message with 'unsubscribe HS Research' in the subject heading. |
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