• GOVERNANCE: The Causes of Civil War • HEALTH: Prevalence of HIV Infection in Conflict-Affected and Displaced People • DISPLACEMENT: Health and Mortality of Internally Displaced Persons • RESOURCES: Overcoming the "Resource Curse" • PEACE OPERATIONS: Observations on Costs, Strengths, and Limitations of U.S. and UN Operations • INTERNATIONAL LAW: Accountability and Justice for International Crimes in Sudan • CRIMINAL VIOLENCE: 2007 World Drug Report • ARMED CONFLICT: Rethinking Insurgency • ARMED GROUPS: The Lord's Resistance Army and Forced Conscription in Northern Uganda • CONFLICT PREVENTION: Minority Rights: The Key to Conflict Prevention • RESOURCES: Hot Chocolate: How Cocoa Fuelled the Conflict in Côte d’Ivoire • HEALTH: A Psychosocial Needs Assessment of Communities in 14 Conflict-affected Districts in Aceh GOVERNANCE The Causes of Civil War The World Bank To-date, the development of economic institutions has not been linked to the study of civil wars. The dominant hypothesis in the literature that studies conflict is that poverty is the main cause of civil wars. In this paper the authors investigate whether the quality of economic institutions has played a role in sustaining peace. In particular, they test the hypothesis that when governments cannot enforce the law and protect property rights conflict emerges. The authors set up a model in which institutions are endogenous and colonial origins affect civil wars through their legacy on institutions. The results indicate that institutions, proxied by the protection of property rights, rule of law and the efficiency of the legal system, are a fundamental cause of civil war. In particular, an improvement in institutions from the median value in the sample to the 75th percentile is associated with a reduction of 38 percentage points in the incidence of civil wars. Moreover, once institutions are included as explaining civil wars, income does not have any effect on civil war, either directly or indirectly. Continue Reading More on Governance and Security HEALTH Prevalence of HIV Infection in Conflict-Affected and Displaced People in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Systematic Review United Nations High Commissioners for Refugees // University of Copenhagen Violence and rape are believed to fuel the HIV epidemic in countries affected by conflict. The authors compared HIV prevalence in populations directly affected by conflict with that in those not directly affected and in refugees versus the nearest surrounding host communities in sub-Saharan African countries. Of the 295 articles that met their search criteria, 88 had original prevalence data and 65 had data from the seven selected countries. Data from these countries did not show an increase in prevalence of HIV infection during periods of conflict, irrespective of prevalence when conflict began. Prevalence in urban areas affected by conflict decreased in Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda at similar rates to urban areas unaffected by conflict in their respective countries. Prevalence in conflict-affected rural areas remained low and fairly stable in these countries. There is a need for mechanisms to provide time-sensitive information on the effect of conflict on incidence of HIV infection, since they found insufficient data to support the assertions that conflict, forced displacement, and wide-scale rape increase prevalence or that refugees spread HIV infection in host communities. Continue reading More on Health and Security DISPLACEMENT Health and Mortality of Internally Displaced Persons: Reviewing the Data and Defining Directions for Research The Brookings Institution // University of Bern Project on Internal Displacement Internally displaced persons (IDPs) have recently been more firmly placed on the agenda of international organizations, and institutional arrangements to meet the unique challenges of internal displacement have grown significantly. Research and monitoring of IDP situations throughout the world now provide us with essential information on their numbers and location. However, a 2002 report on ‘Armed Conflict and Public Health’ by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) reviewed existing research and found that roughly 50 percent of studies reviewed were for refugee populations, 35 percent had residents as subjects, and only 15 percent were on IDPs. This distribution illustrates a substantial dearth of reliable information on internal displacement and health. There is a growing consensus among observers and practitioners that mortality, morbidity and malnutrition rates among IDPs remain high, relative to ‘normal’ national or regional rates of non-displaced people and refugees. Without a proper base of evidence, however, these accounts remain anecdotal and merit more thorough investigation using epidemiological methods for assessing population health. This paper reviews existing data on mortality and health indicators for IDP situations, identifies some of their limitations, and identifies an agenda for future research. Continue reading More on Refugees and Internally Displaced People RESOURCES Overcoming the "Resource Curse": Prioritizing Policy Interventions in Countries with Large Extractive Industries RAND Corporation Natural resource extraction brings with it many incentives for resource wealth to be diverted to non-productive uses. The purpose of this research is to develop contingent guidelines for state and non-state actors interested in improving the management of natural resource revenues. In particular, it seeks to distill guidelines regarding the design and management of policies to mitigate the political and economic risks often accompanying natural resource windfalls in less-developed countries, thereby enabling implementation of well-understood macroeconomic and welfare improvements in such resource-endowed countries. The research focuses on ensuring that the relationships underlying the mismanagement of natural resource revenues are well understood, evaluating the available policy options, and discerning the policy levers accessible to state and non-state actors interested in resource-dependent countries. The analysis lends new insight into how to keep these countries on the road to prosperity, or redirect them toward it. The author provides policy options to guide bureaucrats, international institutions, aid agencies, investors, and nongovernmental organizations seeking to help developing countries hedge against the dangers the can accompany large surges of wealth. Continue reading More on Natural Resources and Armed Conflict PEACE OPERATIONS Peacekeeping: Observations on Costs, Strengths, and Limitations of U.S. and UN Operations United States Government Accountability Office The authors estimate that it would cost the United States about twice as much as it would the UN to conduct a peacekeeping operation similar to the UN mission in Haiti. The UN budgeted $428 million for the first 14 months of the mission. A similar U.S. operation would have cost an estimated $876 million. Virtually the entire cost difference can be attributed to cost of civilian police, military pay and support, and facilities. First, civilian police costs are less in a UN operation because the UN pays police a standard daily allowance, while U.S. police are given salaries, special pay, and training. Second, U.S. military pay and support reflect higher salaries and higher standards for equipment, ammunition, and rations. Third, U.S. facilities-related costs would be twice those of the UN and reflect the cost of posting U.S. civilian personnel in a secure embassy compound. When the authors varied specific factors, such as increasing the number of reserve troops deployed, the estimated cost for a U.S. operation increased. Cost is not the sole factor in determining whether the United States or the UN should lead a peacekeeping operation. Each offers strengths and limitations. Traditionally, the United States’ strengths have included rapid deployment, strong command and control, and well-trained and equipped personnel. However, ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have reduced personnel and equipment readiness levels and resulted in shortfalls for military police, engineers, and civil affairs experts. Continue reading More on Peace Operations and Post-Conflict Reconstruction INTERNATIONAL LAW Accountability and Justice for International Crimes in Sudan: A Guide on the Role of the International Criminal Court Redress Trust In September 2004, the United Nations Security Council set up an International Commission of Inquiry on Darfur, which found that “serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law amounting to crimes under international law” have been committed. The Commission recommended that the International Criminal Court (ICC or the Court) should be tasked with investigating and prosecuting those most responsible for these crimes. The UN Security Council acted upon the findings of the Commission of Inquiry and, in March 2005, referred the Darfur situation to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for possible investigation and prosecution. People worldwide remain extremely concerned by the crimes and suffering in Darfur and urged and continue to urge the United Nations and others to respond decisively to stop the abuses of individuals and communities in Darfur. Many see the ICC as the best possible mechanism to bring justice and accountability, and to play a role in ending the conflict. The ICC Prosecutor’s investigation of some of the most serious crimes in Darfur presents a unique opportunity for justice in Sudan. But there are a series of challenges which will impact upon the success of the ICC. REDRESS has spoken to numerous victims, lawyers, human rights defenders and others about their knowledge of the ICC and their need for additional information. Continue reading More on International Law, Justice and Accountability CRIMINAL VIOLENCE 2007 World Drug Report United Nations // United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime The World Drug Report presents the most comprehensive statistical view of today’s illicit drug situation. This year’s edition reports signs of long-term containment of the world problem. The overall trend masks however contrasted regional situations, which the report examines in detail. For instance, while an impressive multiyear reduction in opium poppy cultivation continued in South East Asia, Afghanistan recorded a large increase in 2006. Growing interceptions of cocaine and heroin shipments across the world have played an important part in stabilizing the market. However, as we witness successes in some areas, challenges appear in others. Although drug abuse levels are stabilizing globally, countries along major and new trafficking routes, such as those now going through Africa, may face increasing levels of drug consumption. The World Drug Report 2007 also discusses a possible method to better assess and monitor the role played by organized crime in transnational drug trafficking. Continue reading More on Criminal Violence ARMED CONFLICT Rethinking Insurgency Strategic Studies Institute // U.S. Government The U.S. military and national security community lost interest in insurgency after the end of the Cold War. Other defense issues such as multinational peacekeeping and transformation seemed more pressing and thus attracted the most attention. But with the onset of the Global War on Terror in 2001 and the ensuing involvement of the U.S. military in counterinsurgency support in Iraq and Afghanistan, insurgency experienced renewed concern in both the defense and intelligence communities. In this monograph, Dr. Steven Metz, who has been writing on insurgency and counterinsurgency for more than 2 decades, argues that this relearning process, while exceptionally important, emphasized the wrong thing, focusing on Cold War era nationalistic insurgencies rather than the complex conflicts which characterized the post-Cold War security environment. To be successful at counterinsurgency, he contends, the U.S. military and defense community must rethink insurgency. This has profound implications for American strategy and military doctrine. Continue reading More on Armed Conflict ARMED GROUPS Abducted: The Lord's Resistance Army and Forced Conscription in Northern Uganda Human Rights Center // University of California, Berkeley // The Payson Center for International Development // Tulane University Since the late 1980s, the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a spiritualist rebel group with no clear political agenda, has abducted tens of thousands of children and adults to serve as porters and soldiers. Rebel commanders have forced girls, some as young as 12 years old, to serve as sexual and domestic servants and forced their fighters to inflict horrific injuries by cutting off the ears, noses, lips, and limbs of defenseless civilians. Experience of forced conscription into the LRA is traumatic and varies in scope and intensity. Children and youth – some as young as 7 and 8 years old – have been forced to mutilate and kill civilians, including members of their own families and communities. The report provides hard data on forced conscription into the Lord's Resistance Army, a rebel group accused of kidnapping tens of thousands of women and children to serve as soldiers, servants or sex slaves in northern Uganda. The report documents rising violence in the 20-year-long conflict between the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and Ugandan government forces, which have been negotiating a ceasefire. Data was collected from rehabilitation centers in the war-torn, eastern African republic by members of the Berkeley-Tulane Initiative for Vulnerable Populations. Continue reading More on Armies, Paramilitaries, Non-State Armed Groups CONFLICT PREVENTION Minority Rights: The Key to Conflict Prevention Minority Rights Group International Incorporating and analysing patterns of discrimination and exclusion, such as the systematic denial of the existence of particular groups or noting a lack of legislative framework to prevent racism and punish it, are vital in tracking the rise of tension that could lead to violence. Currently, such systems do exist but few have minority rights at their heart, others do but are criticized for being inconsistently applied. A more coherent and coordinated system that draws together national and continental expertise and highlights this at the international level, especially in the United Nations (UN), could have caused an intervention in Darfur at a time when the government might have been more accommodating to minority concerns.Instead, since 2003, at least 200,000 people have died, 2 million are displaced and thousands of women and girls have been raped. Minority experts should exist in key UN bodies that deal with conflict, including the Office for Co-Ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the Peace Building Co mmission and the country missions. Segregation, or the creation of ethnically or religiously ‘pure’ countries or regions, must not be the only postconflict solution if sustainable peace is the genuine aim. A greater commitment to understanding and implementing minority rights at local, national, regional and international levels, with the full inclusion and participation of minority groups, is imperative to conflict prevention. Continue reading More on Conflict Prevention RESOURCES Hot Chocolate: How Cocoa Fuelled the Conflict in Côte d’Ivoire Global Witness Côte d’Ivoire accounted for around 40% of world cocoa production in 2006. Cocoa is the main economic resource of the country, representing on average 35% of the total value of Ivorian exports, worth around 750 bn CFAii per year ($1.4bn). Out of a total population of 16 million inhabitants, 3 to 4 million people work in the cocoa sector. About 10 % of the country’s cocoa is grown in the rebel-controlled zone in the north; the rest is grown in the government-controlled south. This report – Global Witness’s first report dedicated to the cocoa sector in Côte d’Ivoire – documents how revenues from the cocoa trade have contributed to funding armed conflict and how opportunities for enrichment from cocoa through corruption and misuse of revenues, both by the government and the rebel group Forces Nouvelles (FN), continue to undermine the resolution of the crisis. The information in this report is based on in-depth field investigations conducted in Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Togo in June and July 2006. Global Witness staff interviewed a wide range of sources in Abidjan in the government-controlled zone; in Bouaké and Korhogo in the FN-controlled zone; in Bobo-Dioulasso in neighbouring Burkina Faso, and in Lomé, the capital of Togo. Those interviewed included cocoa sector officials, cocoa exporters, government officials, diplomats, academics, members of non-governmental organisations and journalists. Continue reading More on Natural Resources and Armed Conflict HEALTH A Psychosocial Needs Assessment of Communities in 14 Conflict-affected Districts in Aceh International Organization for Migration // Harvard Medical School // The World Bank // Syiah Kuala University // Decentralization Support Facility // Syiah Kuala University Between December 2005 and November 2006, a team of researchers from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Department of Social Medicine from Harvard Medical School, carried out a Psychosocial Needs Assessment (PNA) in high conflict sub-districts across Aceh.Almost two years after the Helsinki peace accord was signed, Acehnese civilians continue to suffer a high rate of combat trauma, the International Organization for Migration and Harvard researchers have found in the first Aceh-wide study of conflict related trauma and depression. The assessment which evaluates the mental health needs of people affected by the 29-year conflict between Indonesian security forces and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), was conducted with assistance from Syiah Kuala University, the Indonesian Health Department and funded by the World Bank, the Decentralization Support Facility, Harvard University and IOM.The report found that 35 percent of persons studied ranked high on symptoms for depression, 10 percent for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and 39 percent for anxiety. Continue reading More on Health and Security Compiled by Robert Hartfiel Human Security Research is produced by the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Human Security Report Project is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. 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