• ARMED CONFLICT: Peace and Conflict 2008 • GOVERNANCE: The U.S. Response to Precarious States • CONFLICT RESOLUTION: Fighting Rather than Bargaining • ARMED GROUPS: "This Gun is our Food": Demilitarising the White Army Militias of South Sudan • ARMED CONFLICT: Norms, Civilian Casualties, and U.S. Conduct in Iraq • RESOURCES: From Curse to Cures: Practical Perspectives on Remedying the Resource Curse • HEALTH: The Gathering Storm: Infectious Diseases and Human Rights in Burma • POST-CONFLICT: Analysis of the Implementation of DD&R in Aceh • HUMANITARIAN AID: A Review and Analysis of the State of Humanitarian Funding • TERRORISM: Militant Recruitment in Pakistan: A New Look at the Militancy-Madrasah Connection • CHILDREN: Early to War: Child Soldiers in the Chad Conflict • GOVERNANCE: Hamas and the Seizure of Gaza ARMED CONFLICT Peace and Conflict 2008 Center for International Development and Conflict Management Peace and Conflict is a biennial publication that provides key data and documents trends in national and international conflicts ranging from isolated acts of terrorism to internal civil strife to full-fledged interstate war. Peace and Conflict 2008 is a large format, full-color reference including numerous graphs, tables, maps, and appendices dedicated to the visual presentation of data. Crisp narratives are highlighted with pull-quote extracts that summarize trends and major findings. The data and analysis presented in Peace and Conflict 2008 focus on the special theme of "Challenges to the Stability of States." Key features include: the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger, a ranking of the status and progress of 160 countries based on their forecasted risk of future instability a global survey of all international and domestic terror events since 1970 large format, full-color graphs, tables, maps, and appendices throughout. Only the executive summary is currently available for free. Continue Reading More on Armed Conflict GOVERNANCE The U.S. Response to Precarious States: Tentative Progress and Remaining Obstacles to Coherence Center for Global Development The Bush administration has declared fragile states to be a threat to international security and an obstacle to global development. Unfortunately, the United States is still struggling to craft the strategies, mobilize the resources and align the policy instruments it needs to help reform and reconstruct failing, failed, and war-torn states. Improved U.S. performance in prevention, crisis response, and the long-term process of state-building after conflict will require a more integrated approach that goes well beyond impressive military assets to include major investments in critical civilian capabilities. Ingredients for a more successful approach include embracing prevention as an operating principle; achieving a common vision about the goals of U.S. action; establishing criteria and methods for determining when and where to engage; clarifying interagency leadership within Washington and in the field; improving civil-military planning and coordination; developing a standing civilian surge capacity and relevant technical skills; and providing significantly higher funding to support U.S. civilian engagement in failing and post-conflict states. Continue reading More on Governance and Security CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND PEACEMAKING Fighting rather than Bargaining Stanford University If bargaining is understood to involve the continuous exchange of offers that have a positive chance of being accepted, then virtually all interstate and civil wars involve significant periods in which the combatants simply fight and do not bargain. Why don't they exchange serious offers in order to reduce the costs of war? The author considers a model in which a government makes offers to a rebel group, and in which the government cannot commit not to revise its proposal downwards if the rebel group reveals its type by accepting an offer. He shows that this ratchet effect can undermine the government's ability to screen weak types of rebel groups by making peace offers, forcing the government to use fighting to screen out weak types. In the model's equilibrium the government makes non-serious offers that neither type of rebel group will accept for a period of time. If the rebels survive this length of time, the government shifts to an offer that both types will accept and a self-enforcing peace begins. Continue reading More on Conflict Resolution and Peacemaking ARMED GROUPS "This Gun is our Food": Demilitarising the White Army Militias of South Sudan Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Militias and other armed groups embody a special dimension in warfare that transcends the classic inter-state and intra-state (government/guerrilla movement) disputes of the past. These militarised entities are prone to pursue conflict first and foremost in terms of local interests, which make them notoriously difficult to manage in the context of post-conflict transitions to peace, and as a consequent pose particular challenges for DDR programmes. The classic instruments utilised in disarmament practices – namely influence, incentives and coercion – tend to be blunt in their generic, internationally-mandated application and can therefore produce a variety of unintended consequences, including active resistance amongst militias. The demilitarisation of the so-called ‘White Army’ militias of South Sudan highlights, on the one hand, the complexities inherent in managing a disarmament process aimed at militias and, on the other hand, illustrates the possibilities for success inherent in a well-considered campaign. This paper highlights policy considerations for the demilitarisation of militias based on the lessons learned from South Sudan’s recent experiences disarming White Army militias in Upper Nile and Jonglei states from January to August 2006. Continue reading More on Armies, Paramilitaries, Non-State Armed Groups ARMED CONFLICT In the Crossfire or the Crosshairs? Norms, Civilian Casualties, and U.S. Conduct in Iraq Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs The belief that U.S. forces regularly violate the norm of noncombatant immunity (i.e., the notion that civilians should not be targeted or disproportionately harmed during hostilities) has been widely held since the outset of the Iraq War. Yet the evidence suggests that the U.S. military has done a better job of respecting noncombatant immunity in Iraq than is commonly thought. It also suggests that compliance has improved over time as the military has adjusted its behavior in response to real and perceived violations of the norm. This behavior is best explained by the internalization of noncombatant immunity within the U.S. military’s organizational culture, especially since the Vietnam War. Contemporary U.S. military culture is characterized by an "annihilation-restraint paradox": a commitment to the use of overwhelming but lawful force. The restraint portion of this paradox explains relatively high levels of U.S. adherence with the norm of noncombatant immunity in Iraq, while the tension between annihilation and restraint helps to account for instances of noncompliance and for why Iraqi civilian casualties from U.S. operations, although low by historical standards, have still probably been higher than was militarily necessary or inevitable. Continue reading More on Armed Conflict RESOURCES From Curse to Cures: Practical Perspectives on Remedying the Resource Curse Development Alternatives The six articles in this collection bring a development practitioner’s eye to the “resource curse,” the apparently paradoxical phenomenon that sees resource-abundant nations lag behind less resource-dependent counterparts in economic, social, and political development. These essays offer real-world responses to the resource curse. Economist R.M. Auty, for example, frames the curse within his theory of rent cycling, drawing out the resulting implications for development policy. Democracy specialist Joe Siegle digs into the governance roots of the problem to unearth practical options for fighting resource-related corruption and building accountability in resource-related institutions. Public finance experts Mark Gallagher and Steve Rozner examine fiscal tools for tackling the resource curse. Case studies of Chad (David Tardif-Douglin) and of Angola, Azerbaijan, and Norway (Brandon Lundberg, Meral Karan, and Rick Ernst) ground From Curse to Cures in the specifics of what is or is not working, where, and why. Continue reading More on Natural Resources and Armed Conflict HEALTH The Gathering Storm: Infectious Diseases and Human Rights in Burma Human Rights Center // University of California, Berkeley // Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health As Congress debates extending political and economic sanctions against Burma’s military regime, a new report from the University of California, Berkeley, and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health documents how decades of repressive rule, civil war and poor governance have contributed to the spread of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and other infectious diseases in Burma. "While 40 percent of Burma's annual spending goes to the military, only 3 percent goes to health care, according to the report. The Burmese military junta spends 40 cents per citizen each year on health care, compared to the government of neighboring Thailand, which spends $61 per citizen a year." "Decades of neglect by Burma's military government have turned the country into an incubator of infectious diseases," said Chris Beyrer, a co-author of the report and professor of epidemiology at The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. "While the health situation deteriorates, the junta continues to limit the ability of international relief organizations to reach those most in need. Continue reading More on Health and Security POST-CONFLICT Re-paving the Road to Peace: Analysis of the Implementation of DD&R in Aceh Province Indonesia Bonn International Center for Conversion This report presents the findings of the BICC Project, deriving from interviews conducted with a variety of actors in Aceh in November 2006, and the analysis of secondary literature and program information. This brief's objective is to provide a comprehensive overview of the DD&R process and to assess how the peace process has progressed since the signing of the MoU that ended nearly 30 years of armed conflict. By providing a comprehensive overview of DD&R process in Aceh undertaken within the wider framework of conflict management chosen for the province. This is of particular relevance, as so far studies undertaken by, for example, the World Bank, International Crisis Group, the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, etc. tend to focus on one specific aspect rather than on the entire range of aspects relevant for DD&R. Therefore, by providing the "whole picture" of the DD&R process undertaken until November 2006 and by thus filling an information gap, this brief makes a vital contribution to the literature on conflict management. Continue reading More on Peace Operations and Post-Conflict Reconstruction HUMANITARIAN AID Follow the Money: A Review and Analysis of the State of Humanitarian Funding Feinstein International Center // Tufts University This briefing paper is about the financing of humanitarian action. The following questions are asked: - Is the pot of humanitarian finance able to meet present and projected global humanitarian needs? - Do existing financing mechanisms ensure that money follows need? - Do the present financing mechanisms promote quality aid, encouraging it to be timely, context-specific, evidence-based and rigorous in its application? - Are the operational agencies capable of using the funding appropriately? - More succinctly, is there enough money, is it going to the right people in the right places in the most efficient way? The paper describes the present state of humanitarian funding—focusing on the global picture, key trends and recognized shortcomings. While it includes discussion of new financing mechanisms, such as the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) and Common Humanitarian Funds, these are not the primary focus of the paper. Combined these tools account for perhaps 10 percent of official humanitarian aid. The analysis, by contrast, is concerned with the totality of humanitarian financing, and how the many different instruments and mechanisms used to disburse these funds interact with each other. Continue reading More on Armed Conflict TERRORISM Militant Recruitment in Pakistan: A New Look at the Militancy-Madrasah Connection National Bureau of Asian Research Ever since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Pakistan’s madaris (pl. of madrasah or “seminary”) have attracted the attention of policymakers in the United States and elsewhere. Pakistan’s madaris are posited both to be incubators of militants in Pakistan and to be responsible for creating communities of support for militancy in Pakistan, South Asia, and beyond. Consequently, the United States and other countries have strongly encouraged Pakistan’s president, General Pervez Musharraf, to reform these institutions and close down those madaris for which there is evidence of links to militant groups, or tanzeems as they are known in Pakistan. Consonant with the perceived threat posed by these religious schools, the popular, academic, and policy literatures on Pakistan’s madaris have expanded. These analyses have produced contradictory findings. While several prominent authors have argued that madaris are critical to militant production in the region and beyond, others have cast doubt upon these claims, noting that few known militants have had madrasah backgrounds. Contrary to popular belief, madrasah students are not all poor and madaris are not categorically tied to militancy. Madaris—along with mosques and public proselytizing events (tabligh)—are, however, “gathering” places where militant groups, religious ideologues, and potential recruits can interact. Continue reading More on Terrorism CHILDREN Early to War: Child Soldiers in the Chad Conflict Human Rights Watch In some areas of eastern Chad the political dynamics of the Chad conflict intersect with localized inter-ethnic tensions and violence. Children escaping rampant insecurity sometimes fled directly into the ranks of paramilitary groups such as the FUC (FUC forces) are concentrated in Dar Tama, a department in northeastern Chad where a climate of generalized insecurity has led to violent attacks against civilians). In December 2006, the Chadian government made peace with the FUC, hitherto one of its most formidable rebel opponents. But by agreeing to contribute many more soldiers to the government army than it had under arms, the FUC was obliged to conduct aggressive manpower drives. Insecurity in Dar Tama continued to drive many children to seek safety in the ranks of the FUC, including schoolchildren. But at the same time, active recruitment on the part of the FUC, including promises of money, pulled children into the group. Human Rights Watch does not have evidence of ongoing recruitment of children on the part of the FUC, but girls and boys continue to serve in the FUC, and some children have fought alongside adult soldiers as combatants. This 46-page report documents how the Chadian army, its allied paramilitary militias and rebel forces have used and recruited child soldiers in both northern Chad and along the eastern border with Sudan’s Darfur region. The report is based on interviews with senior officers in the Chadian military as well as current child soldiers themselves. Continue reading More on Children and Armed Conflict GOVERNANCE Hamas and the Seizure of Gaza U.K. House of Commons Library In mid-June 2007 Hamas completed the seizure of Gaza, defeating elements of the nationalist Fatah movement. The development effectively left the Palestinian Territories divided, with the Islamists of Hamas in control of Gaza, and Fatah retaining control of the West Bank. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas’s actions and announced the formation of an Emergency Government largely composed of technocrats. He said he would rule by decree until the conditions were right for fresh elections. The Prime Minister of the outgoing Government, Ismail Haniya, rejected the move, although Hamas leaders said that they would be willing to talk to Mr Abbas. The EU and US have normalised relations with the new Government and the Quartet (the US, EU, UN and Russia) has agreed to lift the economic embargo on direct assistance to the Palestinian Authority that had been in place since Hamas entered government in early 2006. This paper looks at the background to these events and considers their potential implications. Continue reading More on Governance and Security Compiled by Robert Hartfiel Human Security Research is produced by the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Human Security Report Project is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. For more information on human security visit the Human Security Gateway, an online research and information database that contains a broad range of human security-related resources. 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