• GOVERNANCE: Index of State Weakness in the Developing World • GENDER: Women and Nation-Building • CHILDREN: The UN-led Reporting Mechanism on Children and Armed Conflict • DEVELOPMENT: How Soon Can Donors Exit From Post-Conflict States? • GOVERNANCE: Democratization and Civil War • ARMED CONFLICT: The Situation in Iraq: A Briefing from the Battlefield • POST-CONFLICT: Peacebuilding in Afghanistan: The Case for a National Strategy • ARMED GROUPS: The Private Security Industry and Its Implications for IHL Enforcement • HUMAN RIGHTS: Conflict Management vs. Human Rights in Ending Civil Wars • CLUSTER MUNITIONS: Israel’s Use of Cluster Munitions in Lebanon • INTERNATIONAL LAW: Justice Mechanisms and the Question of Legitimacy • ARMED GROUPS: Iraq’s Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge GOVERNANCE Index of State Weakness in the Developing World The Brookings Institution // Center for Global Development Since September 11, 2001, the United States and other governments have frequently asserted that threats to international peace and security often come from the world’s weakest states. Such countries can fall prey to and spawn a host of transnational security threats, including terrorism, weapons proliferation, organized crime, infectious disease, environmental degradation, and civil conflicts that spill over borders. Accordingly, the 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States maintains that weak and failing states 'pose as great a danger to our national interest as strong states.' The Index of State Weakness in the Developing World was designed to provide policy-makers and researchers with a credible tool for analyzing and understanding the world's most vulnerable countries. Co-directed by Brookings Senior Fellow Susan Rice and Center for Global Development Research Fellow Stewart Patrick, the Index ranks and assesses 141 developing nations according to their relative performance in four critical spheres: economic, political, security and social welfare. Continue Reading More on Governance and Security GENDER Women and Nation-Building RAND Corporation This study examines gender-specific impacts of conflict and post-conflict and the ways in which events in these contexts may affect women differently than they affect men. It analyzes the roles of women in the nation-building process and considers outcomes that might occur if current practices were modified. The recent nation-building activities in Afghanistan are used as a case study. Despite the difficulty of collecting data in conflict zones, the information available from Afghanistan provides several pragmatic points for consideration. Gender issues have been overtly on the table from the beginning of U.S. post-conflict involvement in Afghanistan, in part because of the Taliban’s equally overt prior emphasis on gender issues as a defining quality of its regime. Also, the issue of women’s inclusion is an official part of Afghanistan’s development agenda, so all the active agents in the nation-building enterprise have made conscious choices and decisions that can be reviewed and their underlying logic evaluated. Continue reading More on Gender and Security CHILDREN Getting It Done and Doing It Right: A Global Study on the United Nations-led Monitoring & Reporting Mechanism on Children and Armed Conflict Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict In July 2005, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted Resolution 1612. In addition to calling for other important measures to protect children, the Security Council requested that the Secretary-General establish a mechanism to monitor and report on violations of children’s rights in situations of armed conflict. Still in its infancy, the United Nations-led Monitoring and Reporting Mechanism (MRM) has met with notable achievements in a relatively short amount of time. Since 2005, interagency Taskforces on monitoring and reporting have been formally established in at least eleven countries, and the Security Council Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict (SCWG-CAAC) has used the information submitted by the MRM to issue conclusions on the situations of armed conflict in seven of these countries. The following global study documents and analyzes lessons learned, challenges, and successes in implementing the MRM. Continue reading More on Children and Armed Conflict DEVELOPMENT How Soon Can Donors Exit From Post-Conflict States? Center for Global Development When can a donor (successfully) exit from an on-the-ground presence in a post-conflict state? The answer, according to the analysis presented here, is in decades: figures well beyond what was originally envisioned when peacekeeping troops were first deployed. In the specific cases of Liberia, Mozambique, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste considered here, the best case scenario for successful exit ranges from 15 to 27 years. Successful exit, for the purposes of this paper, entails the creation of the necessary fiscal space to fund the recurrent budget from internally generated revenues. This is a necessary, albeit, not sufficient condition for donor exit. Of essence, however, is the time rather than the dollar value of support provided. An extended donor presence, it is argued, provides the space for the creation, sustenance, and maturation of institutions that are finally able to undergird the state from rolling back into state failure on donor exit. Continue reading More on Development and Security GOVERNANCE Democratization and Civil War Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies Many observers have argued that promoting democracy abroad promotes peace. Mature, stable democracies have not fought wars against each other, and they rarely suffer from civil wars. But the path to the democratic peace is not always smooth. We argue that during the initial phase of a democratic transition, states face a heightened risk of civil war. When authoritarian regimes break down, a panoply of elite factions and popular groups jockey for power in a setting in which repressive state authority has been weakened, yet democratic institutions are insufficiently developed to take their place. This can lead to civil war through the lack of institutional means to regulate or repress factional strife. We test this argument by conducting a statistical analysis. The results indicate that countries in the initial stages of democratization are more than twice as likely to experience civil war as are stable regimes or regimes undergoing a transition to autocracy. Then we discuss the causal mechanisms linking democratization and civil war in cases drawn from the statistical analysis. These findings underscore the risks in trying to promote peace through democratization in countries that lack the institutions to contain factional and communal conflicts. Continue reading More on Governance and Security ARMED CONFLICT The Situation in Iraq: A Briefing from the Battlefield Center for Strategic and International Studies No one can spend some 10 days visiting the battlefields in Iraq without seeing major progress in every area. A combination of the surge, improved win and hold tactics, the tribal uprising in Anbar and other provinces, the Sadr ceasefire, and major advances in the use of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (IS&R) have transformed the battle against Al Qaida in Iraq. If the US provides sustained support to the Iraqi government -- in security, governance, and development -- there is now a very real chance that Iraq will emerge as a secure and stable state. The attached briefing provides detailed graphs and maps taken from material provided to me during my visit to Iraq. The briefing is an update on the situation throughout Iraq, and shows the trends over the past year. These graphs and maps measure major acts of violence, ethno-sectarian violence, and trends in IED and other forms of attack. These same trends emerge from a detailed examination of what is happening in Baghdad, Anbar, and Central Iraq. They show the war is far from over, but the violence has been sharply reduced, and perhaps to the minimum levels possible until Iraq improves its governance and development and moves much further towards political accommodation. Continue reading More on Armed Conflict POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION Peacebuilding in Afghanistan: The Case for a National Strategy Oxfam International Existing measures to promote peace in Afghanistan are not succeeding. This is not only due to the revival of the Taliban, but also because little has been done to try to ensure that families, communities, and tribes – the fundamental units of Afghan society – get on better with each other. War has fractured the social fabric of the country and, in the context of severe and persistent poverty, local disputes have the potential to turn violent and to exacerbate the wider conflict. But there is no effective strategy to help Afghans deal with disputes in a peaceful and constructive way. The nature, causes, and effects of insecurity in Afghanistan vary widely, and there is a corresponding variation in the most effective means by which insecurity can be addressed. Often a range of steps are required in different degrees, such as to strengthen the rule of law, build professional security forces, reduce poverty, or improve governance. Continue reading More on Peace Operations and Post-conflict Reconstruction ARMED GROUPS Mercenarism 2.0? The Rise of the Modern Private Security Industry and Its Implications for International Humanitarian Law Enforcement Harvard International Law Journal In response to reports of frequent criminal misconduct, aggressive behavior, and human rights abuses committed with impunity by private contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan, some have argued that private military and security companies (PSMCs) are no more than modern mercenaries, and that they should therefore be banned under the standing international prohibition on mercenarism. However, the existing instruments prohibiting mercenarism would be difficult to apply to most PMSCs, making it easy for states that want to continue to use these companies to evade such a ban. In contrast, given market forces pushing PMSCs to be more compliant and emerging state practices that favor regulation, coordinated international regulation of PMSCs might feasibly be enforced. This article proposes that many of the issues with private military and security companies could be addressed by creating an international humanitarian law (IHL) principle that recognizes state use of PMSCs as a means of warfare.. Continue reading More on Armies, Paramilitaries and Non-state Armed Groups HUMAN RIGHTS The Ethics of Advice: Conflict Management vs. Human Rights in Ending Civil Wars Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies The theory of transitional justice, usually either war crimes tribunals and/or truth commissions, rests on the assumption that after internal conflict societies must learn and accept the truth of what sort of violence has occurred in order to build a functioning, united society and that any solution which omits such policies should be rejected. There is no empirical support for this assumption. Moreover, acting on it often implies that civil war should be continued. Conflict resolution theory asserts that all major players, including those who have committed atrocities, must be involved in the settlement if it is to be stable. This is not likely to happen unless some people are promised amnesty. Despite its drawbacks, this seems a more appropriate strategy, especially when dealing with someone else’s country and war. Continue reading More on Human Rights and Conflict Resolution and Peacemaking INTERNATIONAL LAW Justice Mechanisms and the Question of Legitimacy Swiss Peace Foundation 'Peace', as the Secretary-General of the United Nations wrote in his Report on the Rule of Law and Transitional Justice in 2004, 'cannot be achieved unless the population is confident that redress for grievances can be obtained through legitimate structures for the peaceful settlement of disputes and the fair administration of justice'. In a way, his words echoed the sentiment expressed by a prominent Rwandan observer who, eyeing the remnants of the onslaught in his country a decade earlier, stated that 'what we need now is justice and cash, in that order'. In the case of Rwanda, that justice came in many forms. Genocide justice is not only dispensed by the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda in Arusha, and universal jurisdiction procedures in a host of countries over the world, but also by a National Unity and Reconciliation Commission, the domestic courts, and the neo-traditional gacaca. As such, the Rwandan 'legal laboratory' forms one of the most poignant examples of the central features of transitional justice in our days: the strong involvement of the international community, the search for alternatives to the classic retributive mechanisms, the tenuous linkage with wider political and socio-economic processes, the ongoing debate on the relationship between justice and reconciliation. Continue reading More on International Law, Justice and Accountibility CLUSTER MUNITIONS Flooding South Lebanon: Israel’s Use of Cluster Munitions in Lebanon in July and August 2006 Human Rights Watch The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a short statement on December 24, 2007, on the results of an internal inquiry into its controversial use of cluster munitions during the 34-day war with Hezbollah in July and August 2006. During that short conflict, the IDF rained an estimated 4 million submunitions on south Lebanon, the vast majority over the final three days when Israel knew a settlement was imminent. The inquiry was the second internal IDF investigation into the use of the weapon, and like its predecessor it exonerated the armed forces of violating international humanitarian law (IHL). Neither a detailed report nor the evidence supporting conclusions has been made public, however, making it impossible to assess whether the inquiry was carried out with rigor and impartiality, and whether it credibly addressed key issues about targeting and the lasting impact of cluster munition strikes on the civilian population. Continue reading More on Small Arms, Light Weapons and Landmines ARMED GROUPS Iraq’s Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge International Crisis Group The dramatic decline in bloodshed in Iraq – at least until last week’s terrible market bombings in Baghdad – is largely due to Muqtada al-Sadr’s August 2007 unilateral ceasefire. Made under heavy U.S. and Iraqi pressure and as a result of growing discontent from his own Shiite base, Muqtada’s decision to curb his unruly movement was a positive step. But the situation remains highly fragile and potentially reversible. If the U.S. and others seek to press their advantage and deal the Sadrists a mortal blow, these gains are likely to be squandered, with Iraq experiencing yet another explosion of violence. The need is instead to work at converting Muqtada’s unilateral measure into a more comprehensive multilateral ceasefire that can create conditions for the movement to evolve into a fully legitimate political actor. Continue reading More on Armies, Paramilitaries and Non-state Armed Groups Human Security Research is produced by the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Human Security Report Project is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. For more information on human security visit the Human Security Gateway, an online research and information database that contains a broad range of human security-related resources. Customizable updates are available here. 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