• ARMED CONFLICT: The Security Challenge in Conflict-Prone Countries -- Paul Collier • ARMED CONFLICT: The Security Challenge in Conflict-Prone Countries -- Andrew Mack • DISPLACEMENT: Future Floods of Refugees: A Comment on Climate Change, Conflict and Migration • PEACE OPERATIONS: The Under-Reporting of Child Sexual Exploitation and Abuse • TERRORISM: The Changing Nature of State Sponsorship of Terrorism • DEVELOPMENT: A Micro-Level Perspective on the Causes and Duration of Warfare • CHILDREN: Child Soldier Global Report 2008 Summary • GENDER: Forced Marriage within the Lord's Resistance Army, Uganda • GOVERNANCE: Breaking the Failed-State Cycle • HUMAN RIGHTS: Terrorism and Human Rights in the Philippines • HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION: Halting Widespread or Systematic Attacks on Civilians • CRIMINAL VIOLENCE: Crime and Its Impact on the Balkans and Affected Countries ARMED CONFLICT The Security Challenge in Conflict-Prone Countries -- Paul Collier Copenhagen Consensus 2008 Large-scale violent conflict takes several forms and our focus is far from comprehensive. Recent media attention has been dominated by Iraq and it is important to acknowledge at the outset that this type of situation is not covered in our analysis. Iraq is in many respects highly atypical of modern conflict. It began as an international war, yet over time international conflict has tended to become far less common. Most warfare in lowincome countries is internal. The situation in Iraq has indeed evolved into what is currently probably best described as an ongoing civil war. While our focus is indeed civil war, the interventions that we evaluate here are designed to prevent rather than arrest such wars. In the first challenge paper on conflict for the Copenhagen Consensus, Collier and Hoeffler (2004) also chose to focus on civil wars. However, within this remit they were more ambitious than the present paper, including the ‘deep prevention’ of civil war, the ending of on-going conflicts, and the prevention of the recurrence of violence in postconflict situations. In this paper our ambition is more limited. We focus predominantly on the prevention of the recurrence of violence in post-conflict societies. Continue reading More on Armed Conflict ARMED CONFLICT The Security Challenge in Conflict-Prone Countries -- Andrew Mack Copenhagen Consensus 2008 Paul Collier, Lisa Chauvet and Havard Hegre (henceforth CCH) have produced an important, detailed and closely reasoned case for reducing the recurrence of political violence in postconflict societies. Their paper focuses on this issue because––depending on definition and dataset––40% or more armed conflicts that stop, start again within a decade. The paper also examines the drivers of military coups, drawing on data from sub-Saharan Africa, and ask what can be done to prevent them. The authors’ analysis proceeds first by determining the major risk factors for civil war and for military coups of which in both cases low GDP per capita and (relatedly) low economic levels of economic growth are critically important. From this it follows that increasing GDP per capita via economic growth should be an effective strategy for reducing the incidence of both civil wars and military coups. The CCH paper seeks to determine the efficacy of two broad policy approaches to stabilizing post-conflict situations––one emphasising post-conflict economic assistance, the other military intervention––via three quite distinct policy instruments. Continue reading More on Armed Conflict DISPLACEMENT Future Floods of Refugees: A Comment on Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Migration Norwegian Refugee Council With the certainty of global warming, the term “climate refugees” is gaining popularity in public discourse. There seems to be some fear in the developed countries that they, if not flooded literally, will most certainly be flooded by ”climate refugees”. From a forced migration perspective, the term is flawed for several reasons. The term “climate refugees” implies a mono-causality that one rarely finds in human reality. No one factor, event or process, inevitably results in forced migration or conflict. It is very likely that climate change impacts will contribute to an increase in forced migration. Because one cannot completely isolate climate change as a cause however, it is difficult, if not impossible, to stipulate any numbers. Importantly, the impacts depend not only on natural exposure, but also on the vulnerability and resilience of the areas and people, including capacities to adapt. At best, we have “guesstimates” about the possible form and scope of forced migration related to climate change. Continue reading More on Displacement PEACE OPERATIONS No One to Turn To: The Under-Reporting of Child Sexual Exploitation and Abuse by Aid Workers and Peacekeepers Save the Children UK In this report we focus on ways to improve the international community’s response to the sexual exploitation and abuse of children by aid workers, peacekeepers and others acting on their behalf in emergencies. Every instance of such abuse is a gross violation of children’s rights and a betrayal of the core principles of humanitarian action. This report draws particular attention to the problem of the under-reporting of such abuse and addresses a range of related issues. It is not a detailed technical document, but aims to bring new evidence into discussions among policy-makers, politicians and those grappling at the local level with the obstacles to effective action. Our research suggests that significant levels of abuse of boys and girls continue in emergencies, with much of it going unreported.The victims include orphans, children separated from their parents and families, and children in families dependent on humanitarian assistance. The existence of this problem has been widely known since 2002 and various positive steps have begun to be taken to eliminate it. Continue reading More on Peace Operations TERRORISM The Changing Nature of State Sponsorship of Terrorism Saban Center for Middle East Policy // The Brookings Institution The U.S. approach toward state sponsorship of terrorism rests on a flawed understanding of the problem and an even more flawed policy response. The U.S. Department of State’s current formal list of state sponsors includes Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria. But Cuba and North Korea have done almost nothing in this area in recent years, and Sudan has changed its ways enough that elsewhere the Bush administration credits Sudan as a “strong partner in the War on Terror.” Of those on the list, only Syria and Iran remain problems, and in both cases their involvement in traditional international terrorism is down considerably from their peaks in the 1980s. What seems like a brilliant policy success, however, is really an artifact of bad list management, because much of the problem of state sponsorship today involves countries that are not on the list at all. Pakistan has long aided a range of terrorist groups fighting against India in Kashmir and is a major sponsor of Taliban forces fighting the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan. Hugo Chavez’s government in Venezuela is a major supporter of the FARC. Continue reading More on Terrorism DEVELOPMENT Poverty and Violent Conflict: A Micro-Level Perspective on the Causes and Duration of Warfare Households in Conflict Network This paper argues that endogenous mechanisms linking processes of violent conflict and household poverty provide valuable micro foundations to the ongoing debate on the causes and duration of armed conflicts. Household poverty affects the onset, sustainability and duration of violent conflict due to the direct and indirect effects of violence on the economic behaviour and decisions of households in conflict areas. These effects lead to the emergence of symbiotic relationships between armed groups and households living in areas they control that may sustain the conflict for a long time. The strength of this relationship is a function of two interdependent variables, namely household vulnerability to poverty and household vulnerability to violence. A large proportion of the poor across the world is affected by widespread violence and conflict, while empirical analyses of civil war point to low-per capita income as the most robust explanatory factor in determining the risk of violent internal conflict breaking out. Continue reading More on Development CHILDREN Child Soldier Global Report 2008 Summary Human Rights Watch // Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers Four years is a long time in a child’s life. Much can happen that will touch the rest of their lives for good or for ill. Some children may live their lives in situations of peace and security. For countless others war continues to be all too real. Over this aspect of the adult world they have little say and no control. Four years is sufficient for substantial developments in the life of a global movement. The last Global Report was published by the Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers (Coalition) in November 2004; since then the movement to end the use of child soldiers has seen continued progress towards a universal consensus against their use in hostilities, witnessed by the fact that over three-quarters of states have now signed, ratified or acceded to the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the involvement of children in armed conflict. On the ground, the consensus would appear to be reflected most clearly by a decrease in the number of conflicts in which children are directly involved – from 27 in 2004 to 17 by the end of 2007. Continue reading More on Children GENDER Forced Marriage within the Lord's Resistance Army, Uganda Feinstein International Center The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)—a rebel group fighting the government of Uganda—is estimated to have abducted over 60,000 Ugandan children and youth. Within the war-affected region of northern Uganda, the LRA has abducted one in three male adolescents and one in six female adolescents. While in captivity, thousands of abducted women and girls—most of whom are from the Acholi and Langi peoples—fought, cooked, carried supplies, fetched water, and cleaned for LRA fighters and commanders, including those who organized and carried out their abductions. Many of those abducted also served as forced wives to male members of the group, with half of them bearing children to their captor husbands. ”Forced Marriage within the Lord’s Resistance Army, Uganda” demonstrates that forced marriage includes acts codified as crimes in international customary and human rights law. These crimes include rape, sexual slavery, enforced pregnancy, forced labor, enslavement, and torture. However, the crime of forced marriage is unique from the above mentioned crimes, as it contains the element of forced conjugality. Continue reading More on Gender GOVERNANCE Breaking the Failed-State Cycle RAND Corporation Insecurity in the 21st century appears to come less from the collisions of powerful states than from the debris of imploding ones. Failed states present a variety of dangers: religious and ethnic violence; trafficking of drugs, weapons, blood diamonds, and humans; transnational crime and piracy; uncontrolled territory, borders, and waters; terrorist breeding grounds and sanctuaries; refugee overflows; communicable diseases; environmental degradation; warlords and stateless armies. Regions with failed states are at risk of becoming failed regions, like the vast triangle from Sudan to the Congo to Sierra Leone. For security, material, and moral reasons, leading states cannot ignore failed ones. Yet both the world’s leading states and the multilateral institutions they manage are struggling in their attempts to help failed states recover. Indeed, “[t]he complex problem of state failure may be much discussed, but it remains little understood.” Although the sheer magnitude and multitude of the problems that failed states face go a long way toward explaining such frustration, we find (as others have) that the linkages among these challenges are what make recovery so difficult—linkages that the international community is not organized to treat. Continue reading More on Governance HUMAN RIGHTS Terrorism and Human Rights in the Philippines International Fact-finding Mission // the Philippine Alliance of Human Rights Advocates // the International Rehabilitation Council for Torture Victims The Armed Forced of the Philippines (AFP) and armed groups have been fighting for decades on the territory of the Philippines. Those armed groups include a variety of movements: the so-called “leftist” groups advocating for national democracy and economic and social rights (the New People’s Army – NPA, the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines); secessionist groups calling for the independence of Mindanao – the Southern island of the country (the Moro National Liberation Front – MNLF, and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front – MILF); and groups with unclear objective which appeared more recently (Abu Sayyaf, Jemaah Islamiyah, Rajah Solaiman Movement). Some of these groups are considered as terrorist organizations. Tensions between armed groups and the Philippine government are not a new phenomenon; but the international context in the aftermath of September 9/11 combined with the close relation between the USA and the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) has encouraged the latter to take additional measures to fight against terrorism. Continue reading More on Human Rights HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION Halting Widespread or Systematic Attacks on Civilians: Military Strategies and Operational Concepts The Henry L Stimson Center “The political direction needs to be more than ‘do something, General!’” The idea of a “responsibility to protect” has grown dramatically since the concept was formally articulated in the 2001 report of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty. Fundamentally, the ICISS argued that nations are responsible for protecting their own people from large scale loss of life, such as genocide and mass violence, and should be held to live up to this sovereign duty. When nations fail to meet their obligation, however, the international community has a responsibility to act. In extreme circumstances, when peaceful means are unsuccessful, this responsibility may require military action. Such actions may be in support of the national government or, if the government itself is complicit in the violence, without its consent. In the past, notably in Rwanda (1994) and the former Yugoslavia (1995), the failure to align calls to protect civilians with a political strategy and military capacity to do so resulted in horrific loss of life. The 2005 endorsement at the United Nations World Summit of an international “responsibility to protect” civilians from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity marked a milestone towards preventing a repeat of these tragedies. Continue reading More on Humanitarian Intervention CRIMINAL VIOLENCE Crime and Its Impact on the Balkans and Affected Countries United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime This report argues that the crime situation in South East European countries is improving. There are several possible reasons for this development. The region is “normalising”, as it completes the transition to democracy and market economy and as it recovers from the conflicts of recent years. This normalisation has been supported though extensive interventions to enhance cooperation on crime matters and to address deficiencies in local criminal justice systems. Equally important, many of the crime problems experienced in the Balkans are related to demand outside the region, and developments in these areas have also contributed to declining opportunities for organised crime. Despite these improvements, there remain significant challenges ahead.The region continues to be the premiere transit zone for heroin destined for West Europe, human trafficking remains an issue, and problems persist with regard to corruption, rule of law, and judicial reform. But an objective analysis of the key indicators leads to the conclusion that things are getting better, and while the potential for reversals remains, it seems that an era of lawlessness is passing. Continue reading More on Criminal Violence Human Security Research is produced by the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Human Security Report Project is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. For more information on human security visit the Human Security Gateway, an online research and information database that contains a broad range of human security-related resources. To subscribe to Human Security Research, send an email to hsilist@sfu.ca with 'subscribe HS Research' in the subject field, or click here. To unsubscribe, please reply to this message with 'unsubscribe HS Research' in the subject heading. |
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