	Issue 47	December 2008

	*Human Security Research* is a monthly mailing list service that highlights significant new human security-related research published by university research institutes, think-tanks, IGOs and NGOs.

	What's New in Human Security Research :

• CONFLICT RESOLUTION: Reflections on Guns, Fighters and Armed Violence in Peace Processes
• CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: Making Sense of Violence against Civilians in Conventional Civil Wars
• ARMED CONFLICT: Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
• NORTH AFRICA: North Africa: New Challenges, Old Regimes, and Regional Security
• DR CONGO: Assessing Security Sector Reform and its Impact on the Kivu Provinces
• EUROPEAN UNION: Perceptions of International Peace Mediation in the EU: A Needs Analysis
• WEST AFRICA: The UN, the AU and ECOWAS: A Triangle for Peace and Security in West Africa?
• COLOMBIA: Lessons from Colombia's Reintegration Program for Demobilized Paramilitaries
• AL-QAEDA: Al-Qaeda in the West as a Youth Movement: The Power of a Narrative
• ARMED CONFLICT: Violent Non-state Actors and National and International Security
• CONFLICT RESOLUTION: Evaluating Peace Mediation
• ARMED CONFLICT: Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya

CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Negotiating Disarmament: Reflections on Guns, Fighters and Armed Violence in Peace Processes
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
Those around the peace negotiating table are charged with several responsibilities. Chief among these is to bring an end to or at least significantly reduce the incidence of violence, in the short and long term. Yet negotiating security issues is an eminently political endeavor, and a hornet’s nest of symbolism and tactics. It is now clear that security concerns cannot be sidestepped or relegated to low priority in peace processes, and that representatives of warring parties and those assisting dialogue face multiple pressures on which substantive agreement must be reached, including the transformation of security and justice systems; establishing control of the vast quantities of weapons in circulation; addressing the needs of those traumatised and disabled by armed violence; and the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of fighting forces. This second volume of Viewpoints: Reflections on Guns, Fighters and Armed Violence in Peace Processes brings together a rich collection of voices and experiences on security issues in peace processes, with the aim of contributing to the various debates and discussions around these difficult subjects. As a companion to the first volume of March 2008, this edition of Viewpoints collects a unique set of insights on security issues drawing upon the individual experiences of those involved in peace processes.
Continue reading

More on Conflict Resolution and Peacemaking

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
Rivalry and Revenge: Making Sense of Violence against Civilians in Conventional Civil Wars
Households in Conflict Network // The Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex
What explains the variation in levels of violence across time and space during civil wars? Why do armed groups use high levels of violence in some places, but not in neighboring places with similar characteristics? What leads armed groups in conflict to target non-combatants to a greater or lesser degree? This question has been at the forefront of recent research on civil wars. To date, two types of explanation have emerged: a first generation of thinkers considered prewar characteristics of countries undergoing civil wars; following Clausewitz and Schmitt, civil conflicts were seen as the result of existing political cleavages, and violence the consequence of these divisions. Following Kalyvas, a second generation of scholars pointed instead to security concerns related to warfare, e.g. the military needs of armed groups, the survival incentives of civilians, or the organizational characteristics of armed groups. These authors, who were in general using more systematic research methods than the previous generation of scholars, were theoretically inspired by Mao Zedong's insight that war cannot be equated with politics because it has its own particular characteristics. This body of research de-emphasized political variables despite the fact that civil wars are usually fought over political issues, i.e. demand for self-determination, regime change, or leadership change.
Continue reading

More on Human Rights

ARMED CONFLICT
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
National Intelligence Council
The international system -- as constructed following the Second World War -- will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors. By 2025, the international system will be a global multipolar one with gaps in national power continuing to narrow between developed and developing countries. Concurrent with the shift in power among nation-states, the relative power of various nonstate actors -- including businesses, tribes, religious organizations, and criminal networks -- is increasing. The players are changing, but so too are the scope and breadth of transnational issues important for continued global prosperity. Aging populations in the developed world; growing energy, food, and water constraints; and worries about climate change will limit and diminish what will still be an historically unprecedented age of prosperity. Historically, emerging multipolar systems have been more unstable than bipolar or unipolar ones.
Continue reading

More on Armed Conflict

NORTH AFRICA
North Africa: New Challenges, Old Regimes, and Regional Security
International Peace Institute
North Africa is often loosely defined, but for the purposes of this paper, it encompasses the states of the Arab Maghreb Union (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia) together with Egypt. With the exception of Mauritania, this group of states lies on the northern littoral of the African continent, between the Mediterranean Sea to the north and the Sahara to the south. This contiguity, however, has not automatically made for a cohesive region; differences between political and economic trajectories have overridden the social solidarities that still unite the peoples of North Africa. The core regional states of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya share an Arabo-Berber heritage and the legacy of the predominately French linguistic and administrative practices of the protectorate and colonial eras. By contrast, the ethnic make-up of Egypt (Arabic, Hamitic, and Nubian) places the largest state of the region, of some 76 million people, apart from the 'Maghrebi' heartland. Egypt has also variously been a leader of Arab nationalism and a key player in attempts to resolve the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, and thus looks toward the Middle East more than it does west or south to its neighbors in Africa.
Continue reading

More on North Africa

DR CONGO
Assessing Security Sector Reform and its Impact on the Kivu Provinces
Institute for Security Studies
The resumption of fighting in eastern Congo in October 2008 between rebel forces loyal to dissident General Nkunda and units of the Congolese army clearly underlines the fragility of the peace process in the DRC. In particular, it confirms the weakness of the Congolese army (FARDC) and the glaring absence of state authority, and once again points to the difficulties of keeping a fragile peace now that the peace agreements between belligerents in Nairobi and Goma have collapsed. This situation report does not aim at examining the roots of the current crisis, nor does it attempt to analyse the different options suggested to reach a more stable settlement. Its principal intention is to evaluate what is believed to be one of the main obstacles to peace: the lack of progress in the reform of DR Congo’s security sector. The continuing war in eastern DRC is a reminder of the paramount importance of reforming the security sector if DR Congo’s post-war state-building exercise is to stand a chance of success. The improvement of human security and the establishment of state authority throughout the country have been advanced by the international community as the key priorities in the consolidation of stability in the DRC, with security sector reform (SSR) being a central component in the national and international policy toolkit to reach these objectives.
Continue reading

More on DR Congo

EUROPEAN UNION
Perceptions of International Peace Mediation in the EU: A Needs Analysis
Initiative for Peacebuilding // Crisis Management Initiative
The global role the EU plays in conflict resolution efforts will shape the way in which it engages in securing its interest in stability and security in the world. It will also shape a foreign policy culture that capitalises on its civilian power capabilities, its role as a donor and its presence in the international community. Mediation, or more precisely international peace mediation, is a professional tool and instrument of conflict resolution that has not yet entered the consciousness of the EU. What is the understanding of policy-makers on the issue of international peace mediation? What are the main issues and themes that pertain to the EU in this regard? The purpose of this issue paper is to reflect on the perceptions and understandings of EU policy-makers, members of the European Parliament, and some key peacebuilding and conflict resolution experts, pertaining to the role of international peace mediation, and to provide recommendations on how some of these needs can be addressed in a coherent way. Research for this paper was undertaken from March until July 2008.
Continue reading

More on International and Regional Organizations

WEST AFRICA
The UN, the AU and ECOWAS: A Triangle for Peace and Security in West Africa?
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
The central question in the regional-global security debate is how the relationship between the UN and regional organisations should be structured so as to maximise the comparative advantages of each body and ensure the complementarity of roles, while maintaining the primacy of the UN in the maintenance of international peace and security. Current debate is centred on how feasible 'partnerships' can be between the UN and regional organisations. The United Nations (UN) has primary responsibility to maintain international peace and security. In his Agenda for Peace, then UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali acknowledged that the capacities of regional organisations in the key areas of preventive diplomacy, peacekeeping, peacemaking, and post conflict peacebuilding could not only lighten the UN's burden, but also help consolidate 'a deeper sense of participation, consensus and democratization in international affairs'. However, although regional organisations have a clear 'stake' in resolving regional crises, the complex dynamics of such crises can mitigate the impact of these organisations. The relationship between the UN and African regional organisations has received significant attention due to the preponderance of conflicts on the continent.
Continue reading

More on West Africa

COLOMBIA
Consolidating Disarmament: Lessons from Colombia's Reintegration Program for Demobilized Paramilitaries
United States Institute of Peace
An essential component of any post-conflict stabilization program is the permanent dismantlement of armed groups and their fruitful absorption into civilian society—this process is known as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration. Although Colombia continues to wrestle with violent conflict at the hands of multiple armed factions, the country embarked on a major DDR program in 2003 with the goal of permanently ending the threat of violence from one of those armed factions -- the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, or AUC). This program progressed surprisingly smoothly through disarmament and demobilization but has stumbled to a degree on reintegration. This report offers a brief history of the AUC and then examines aspects of Colombia’s reintegration process from the standpoint of the government, the demobilized combatants, and the communities at large, offering general lessons for Colombia and future DDR initiatives elsewhere. It is neither meant to be an exhaustive study of Colombian reintegration efforts nor is it meant to offer specific lessons for Colombia, particularly in light of the ever-changing political landscape in Colombia. Rather, the report is intended to offer a broad understanding of obstacles future reintegration programs might encounter anywhere in the world and to provide potential paths for overcoming those obstacles.
Continue reading

More on Colombia

AL-QAEDA
Al Qaeda in the West as a Youth Movement: The Power of a Narrative
Microconflict // Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex
In recent years there has been a strong focus on 'Islamic radicalisation' in Europe, due both to the threat of terrorism and its security implications, and to the issue of integrating second generation migrants in Europe. This paper analyses two main approaches to studying the roots of radicalisation. The first is vertical, and involves establishing a genealogy of radicalisation from the Koran and the first Islamic community to the present Islamist radicals. It is argued that this approach fails to understand the roots of terrorism and arbitrarily isolates 'Muslim' violence from other levels of violence among European youth. The second approach is horizontal and consists of putting the 'leap into terrorism' into the context of the contemporary phenomena of violence affecting our societies in general, and specifically youth. Following this approach, it is more productive to understand Al Qaeda in Europe as a youth movement, which shares many factors with other forms of dissent. An effective strategy to combat terrorism has two levels: one employs traditional intelligence and legal techniques to trace and neutralise cells. The second would be to destroy Al Qaeda's narrative, by de-Islamising it, rather than demonising it as 'bad Islam'.
Continue reading

More on Terrorism

ARMED CONFLICT
Violent Non-state Actors and National and International Security
International Relations and Security Network
Even a cursory global survey suggests that violent non-state actors (VNSA s) have become a pervasive challenge to nation-states. In Europe, jihadist terrorist organizations have carried out dramatic and well-publicized attacks in Madrid and London and have only been prevented from further actions by proactive intelligence and law enforcement. In Mexico, drug-trafficking organizations are challenging the Mexican state in a particularly brutal manner, and have killed a series of high-ranking policemen in retaliation for the Calderon administration's efforts to disrupt their activities and reduce their power. In the favelas of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, drug traffickers and, more recently, militias provide rudimentary forms of governance in urban areas where the state is absent. In Central America and the United States, youth gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) have a massive and highly-disruptive presence. In Colombia, the state has beaten back the political challenge from the FARC insurgency but the guerillas have largely been transformed into a major drug-trafficking organization that in some regions, cooperates with former rightwing paramilitary organizations turned drug traffickers. In Albania, Italy and many parts of the former Soviet Union, criminal organizations not only intimidate businesses, corrupt politicians and launder their proceeds, but also engage in a variety of activities that challenge and undermine state sovereignty
Continue reading

More on Armed Conflict

CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Evaluating Peace Mediation
Swiss Peace Foundation // European Union Initiative for Peacebuilding // Center for Peace Mediation // Crisis Management Initiative
Contemporary peace mediation is a crowded and increasingly competitive field currently lacking established accountability mechanisms. The present paper proposes a general framework for evaluating international mediation activities. Its main purpose is to provide a tool for observers, donors and desk officers to achieve better quality control of mediation processes, while also facilitating critical reflection and lessons learnt among mediators. Peace mediation takes place in extremely complex contexts and its contributions are multi-faceted and difficult to grasp. The first section of the paper discusses a range of dilemmas associated with the evaluation of peace mediation. For example, it is impossible to pin down the quantifiable results of mediation activities, particularly given their vastly differing objectives and scope. Furthermore, evaluation can be problematic insofar as it may restrain the flexibility of mediators and call into question the confidentiality of mediation processes. Therefore, the evaluation framework proposed in this paper is different from standard evaluation methodologies.
Continue reading

More on Conflict Resolution and Peacemaking

ARMED CONFLICT
Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya
Jason Lyall // Princeton University
Does a state's use of indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks? At first glance, the answer would appear obvious. Indeed, one recent review cites no fewer than 100 studies and 45 historical cases in which a state's reliance on collective targeting of the noncombatant population provoked greater insurgent violence. Indiscriminate violence, it is argued, solves the collective action problem facing insurgents by forcing would-be free riders to seek sanctuary in rebels' arms. As a result, state-orchestrated brutality plays a key role in our theories of violence during civil wars by sparking a spiral of action and reaction that facilitates insurgent mobilization while widening the war's geographic scope and destructiveness. Once set in motion, these escalatory dynamics are difficult to arrest, often leading to the state's own defeat as its resources and willpower become exhausted. Yet we also possess studies, albeit fewer in number, by both scholars and practitioners arguing that a state's use of indiscriminate violence can actually suppress an insurgency, at least under certain conditions.
Continue reading

More on Armed Conflict

Human Security Research is produced by the Human Security Report Project at the School for International Studies at Simon Fraser University. The Human Security Report Project is funded by the governments of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. For more information on human security visit the Human Security Gateway, an online research and information database that contains a broad range of human security-related resources.

To subscribe to Human Security Research, send an email to hsilist@sfu.ca with 'subscribe HS Research' in the subject field, or click here.

To unsubscribe, please reply to this message with 'unsubscribe HS Research' in the subject heading.