	How Soon is Safe? Iraqi Force Development and "Conditions-Based US Withdrawals
	Report of the Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict in the Sudan [S/2009/84]
	Non-State Providers of Health Services in Fragile States

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ARMED CONFLICT: Great Powers and International Conflict Management: European and Chinese Involvement in the Darfur and Iran Crises
In the coming decades, the relationship between Beijing and Washington is likely to be the primary bilateral relationship in the shaping of international security. Consequently, authors on China�s rise in global security usually focus on this bilateral relationship. The security relationship between China and Europe is still a somewhat meagerly explored topic. The reason for this may be that direct security relations between Europe and China are only a minor element in Sino-European relations. And yet, as the US� main security partner, Europe is a major actor in global security. Two European countries are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and Europe is a source of significant economic and diplomatic influence in a number of regions in the world. To understand how the international security landscape is changing as a result of China�s rise, the interaction between Europe and China is very much a relevant topic. The emergence of China in international politics leads to a fundamental change in great power involvement in conflict management and security diplomacy. The clearest example of China's new role has been its part in the North Korean nuclear issue. Two other crisis situations in which China and the US play roles that are to some extent similar to North Korea are the Iranian nuclear issue and the violence in Darfur, Sudan. Clingendael Security and Conflict Programme // Netherlands Institute of International Relations (25 January)

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AFGHANISTAN: Securing Afghanistan: Getting on Track
More than seven years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, important gains made in bringing stability and democracy to Afghanistan are imperiled. While there have been some positive developments in such areas as economic growth, the Taliban and other insurgent groups have gained some ground in the country and in neighboring Pakistan, the drug trade remains a significant problem, and corruption has worsened in the Afghan government. According to United Nations data, insurgent incidents have increased every year since the 2001 overthrow of the Taliban regime. The situation in parts of Afghanistan�s south and east is particularly concerning because of the twin menace of insurgent and criminal activity. Despite these challenges, the insurgency remains deeply fractured among a range of groups, and most have little support among the Afghan population. This presents an opportunity for Afghans and the international community to turn the situation around. United States Institute of Peace (23 January)

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TRANSITIONAL JUSTICE: Does Transitional Justice Work?
Governments, societies, and international actors have high expectations for transitional justice. So much so, that it seems to be overloaded with goals. These goals include: paving the way for stronger democracies, deterring future human rights violations, establishing rule of law, discovering the truth, bringing perpetrators to justice and ending the culture of impunity, restituting victims of past violence and restoring their dignity, drawing a thick line to separate the past from the present, and reconciling the past. Regardless of how comprehensive its programs, transitional justice could not possibly fulfill all of these goals. For researchers and policymakers additional problems arise with regard to transitional justice and goal-fulfillment. Definition and measurement problems plague the study of transitional justice. Multiple and often conflicting definitions confound understanding of the goals themselves. Truth, justice, democracy, human rights, perpetrators, reconciliation, and reparations all mean different things to different social actors and social scientists. Researchers cannot measure success in achieving these goals when no consensus exists on what the most important goals are, or even how to define them. Measuring success also faces challenges. For some, the very establishment of a truth commission or a trial demonstrates success in overcoming prevailing silence and impunity. For others, anything less than the whole truth or justice for all perpetrators undermines these processes. Some of the concepts defy satisfactory measurement. Center for Human Rights and Global Justice // New York University (1 January)

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SUDAN: In Search of Peace: Exploring Viable Solutions to the Darfur Crisis
Darfur is located in the Western part of Sudan and borders Libya to the north, and Chad and Central African Republic to the West. It had an estimated population of seven million (prior to refugee and IDP displacements), representing more than 70 tribes, and is potentially rich in natural resources including oil, copper, and uranium, as well as reservoirs of subsurface 'Pleistocene water.' The current crisis in Darfur can be traced back to traditional conflicts between nomadic tribes and sedentary farmers. The nomads, who are mostly camel and cattle herders, claim to be of Arab origin while the sedentary farmers claim African origins. During dry seasons, the nomads venture into agriculturalist areas in search of food, water, and grazing lands for their animals. Such encroachments historically fermented tribal conflicts. The severe drought which periodically strikes the Sudano-Sahelian belt adversely affects the Darfur region of Sudan, contributing to attacks by nomadic tribes on sedentary agriculturalists. Tribal councils used to mediate these conflicts through arbitration and compensation. Africa Today Associates // University of Denver // Josef Korbel School of International Studies (5 January)

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REFUGEES: A Surrogate State? The Role of UNHCR in Protracted Refugee Situations
In an article published in the New Left Review, quoted in the preceding paragraph, Jacob Stevens provides a scathing critique of UNHCR. According to his analysis, the organization's primary interest lies in its own size and status, and not in the welfare of the refugees it is mandated to protect. By pursuing these interests, the article suggests, UNHCR has been complicit in the perpetuation of refugee situations that might otherwise have been brought to a speedy and satisfactory end. The analysis presented in this paper, which focuses primarily but not exclusively on Africa, where the problem of protracted refugee problems has assumed the most serious dimensions, reaches a different conclusion. The paper argues that humanitarian agencies in general, and UNHCR in particular, have been placed in the position of establishing and assuming responsibility for such 'sprawling camps' in order to fill gaps in the international refugee regime that were not envisaged at the time of its establishment after the Second World War. It goes on to suggest that the UN's refugee agency has been limited in its ability to address the problem of protracted refugee situations, mainly because of the intractable nature of contemporary armed conflicts and the policies pursued by other actors, but also because of the other issues which the organization has chosen to prioritize and the limited amount of attention which it devoted to this issue during the 1990s. The paper concludes by examining the organization's more recent and current efforts to tackle the issue of protracted refugee situations, and identifies some of the key principles on which such efforts might most effectively be based. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (26 January)

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PAKISTAN: Mainstreaming Pakistan's Tribal Belt: A Human Rights and Security Imperative
Today Pakistan's federally administered tribal areas (FATA) are the epicenter of the US led 'global war on terror.' A 2008 US Directorate National Intelligence assessment states that Al-Qaeda is finalizing its next plan of attack against America in FATA. While the Taliban's high command for southern Afghanistan � the 'Quetta shura' - is in Pakistan's Baluchistan province, the Taliban have escalated attacks in Afghanistan from FATA with 2008 marking the highest level of violence since the Taliban's fall in 2001. Yet attacks well beyond the region, including the 7/7 London bombings, have also been traced to individuals who allegedly trained in FATA.4 Meanwhile, FATA-based militants are largely responsible for the over 56 major suicide bombings in Pakistan in 2007 alone that claimed hundreds of lives including that of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. To address the domestic and global threat emanating from FATA, the Pakistani government has adopted a strategy of 'dialogue, development, and deterrence.' Meanwhile, the Bush administration has pushed for military operations over peace deals and pledged $750 million over five years for FATA�s development. Although security is aptly the preeminent priority no amount of operations, deals, or aid alone will stabilize FATA unless Islamabad also addresses its regressive and receding governance system. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs // John F. Kennedy School of Government // Harvard University (15 January)

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SIERRA LEONE: Building Accountable Justice in Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone's civil war left the country's justice system severely damaged, and rebuilding and reforming this system has been a major priority for Sierra Leone's government and donors following the end of the conflict. Within this, there has been a particular focus on developing a justice system that is accountable to citizens, as both lack of justice and unaccountable and unresponsive governance were root causes of the conflict. This Working Paper by Clare Castillejo examines the extent to which a more accountable justice system is being built in Sierra Leone and the challenges and opportunities for doing this. It analyses five key components of accountability - access, equality, information, oversight and participation - and asks to what extent these are being developed within Sierra Leone's justice institutions. Based on this analysis the Working Paper suggests policy options for strengthening accountability as part of current justice sector reform initiatives. This Working Paper is based on field research conducted by FRIDE and Campaign for Good Governance in Freetown and Kono, Koinadugu and Moyamba districts in June 2008. Fundacion para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Dialogo Exterior (30 January)

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INDIA: Violent Deaths and Enforced Disappearances During the Counterinsurgency in Punjab India: A Preliminary Quantitative Analysis
This report analyzes reported fatal violence across Punjab during a period of conflict from 1984 to 1995. This preliminary, descriptive statistical analysis by Ensaaf and the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG) at Benetech uses systematic and verifiable quantitative research to interrogate the Indian government�s portrayal of the Punjab counterinsurgency as a successful campaign with isolated human rights violations. Our empirical findings indicate that the intensification of coordinated counterinsurgency operations in the early 1990s was accompanied by a shift in state violence from targeted enforced disappearances and extrajudicial executions to large-scale and systematic lethal human rights violations, accompanied by mass 'illegal cremations'. As part of government counterinsurgency operations from 1984 to 1995, Indian security forces disappeared and extrajudicially executed Sikh militants as well as individuals who had no known connection to the militancy. Special counterinsurgency laws facilitated human rights violations and shielded perpetrators from accountability. The government of India dismisses claims that enforced disappearances and extrajudicial executions were widespread and systematic, asserting instead that human rights violations were unavoidable 'aberrations' in the war on terrorism. Human Rights Data Analysis Group // Human Rights Program // Benetech // Ensaaf (26 January)

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TERRORISM: The Serpent in Our Garden: Al-Qa'ida and the Long War
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11), caused Americans to realize that our sense of invincibility had been shattered. This paper will identify al-Qa'ida and Salafi-Jihadists as our enemy and will recommend new approaches to fighting terrorism. Colonel Brian Drinkwine will explore al-Qa'ida's organization, leaders, doctrine, and their radical ideologies. It is argued that the war we must fight is one against Islamist transnational actors who openly engage in terrorism or support terrorism. It will highlight that our current national and military strategies to combat terrorism are inadequate to take on an ideologically emboldened transnational foe. It is emphasized that we must refocus our efforts and prepare to fight a war of several generations (long war), and several initiatives will be recommended to include development of a cogent grand national strategy. These recommendations are intended to assist future planners in the development of a grand national strategy and an integrated long war campaign plan aimed directly at al-Qa�ida, the al-Qa�ida Associated Movement, and Islamist terrorists and executed through the application of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic instruments of national power by an unified interagency effort in coordination with our multinational partners, international governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and regional security organizations. The Strategic Studies Institute // United States Army War College (26 January)

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LIBERIA: Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion After Civil War? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Post-Conflict Liberia
Civil war is very common in the developing world, with harmful welfare effects when it occurs. Many fear that the devastation wrought by violent conflict destroys social capital, impedes economic development and leads to the recurrence of violence (World Bank 2003). In response, donors are injecting large amounts of aid into post-conflict countries. A significant share of this assistance is spent on 'community-driven reconstruction' (CDR) programs, which support the establishment of new local institutions in order to promote social reconciliation. Whether this assistance has this effect is, however, largely unknown. Can brief, foreign-funded efforts to build local institutions in fact have positive effects on local patterns of cooperation? We address this question using a randomized field experiment to evaluate the impact of a CDR project carried out by a major international NGO in northern Liberia. The project attempted to build democratic, community-level institutions for making and implementing decisions about local public goods. Stanford University // Columbia University (1 January)

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WEST BANK AND GAZA STRIP: Hamas, Al-Qaeda and the Islamisation of the Palestinian Cause
Hamas's take-over of the Gaza Strip has led to the establishment of a radical Islamic entity that practices terrorism to achieve its goals and that has close connections with the �Muslim Brotherhood� in Egypt (whose Palestinian branch is Hamas) and Iran, the radical Islamic Shiite state. Hamas is challenging and threatening the Palestinians� secular nationalist territorial aims and striving to implement its Pan-Islamic religious ideology in accordance with the idea of the Islamic Ummah (the seamless nation of Islam). This entity is now in violent conflict with Abu Mazen, Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, who represents the national-secular Fatah movement. Due to this, Abu Mazen and official Palestinian and Egyptian media use terms such as 'Islamic Emirate' when describing the new entity that has been established in the Gaza Strip. Under Hamas's rule in Gaza, organisations identified with the global Jihad have started to emerge and carry out attacks against western targets in the Gaza Strip. These radical entities form a new pro-al-Qaeda and global-Jihad-oriented conglomerate that operates in the Gaza Strip with no interference from Hamas, that considers them a spearhead committed to maintaining the 'flame' of Jihad against Israel and 'purifying' Palestinian society from the West's presence and influence. Hamas's activities make it evident that its strategic objective within the Palestinian arena is to take over and replace the PLO in the leadership of the Palestinian National Movement. The Elcano Royal Institute // Real Instituto Elcano (30 January)

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GOVERNANCE: Fragile States
The aim of this paper is to help make the concept of 'fragile states' operational for development policy. Consequently, it proposes a working definition of 'fragile' states in the light of existing definitions, suggesting a way of operationalising the definition empirically. It considers how fragility, as defined, relates to other major development approaches to vulnerable societies, with particular emphasis on a human rights (HR) approach, while also discussing horizontal inequalities (HIs) and social exclusion (SE), the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and poverty reduction. The paper proposes a three-pronged definition of fragility � states may be fragile because they lack authority (authority failure), fail to provide services (service entitlement failure) or lack legitimacy (legitimacy failure). We argue that each captures different aspects of state vulnerability, and that they are related to each other causally. The paper points to some policy implications of the proposed approach to fragility. Throughout, it draws on six case studies � Indonesia, Nepal, Guatemala, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria and Sudan � which are presented at the end of the paper. Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity // University of Oxford (1 January)

More on Governance and Security |

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