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Human Security Newsletter

December 2009
Feature Stories
CAR: The Impact of the Armed Insurgency on Political Parties and Representation
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: Gangs, Guns, and Governance
SOMALIA: Creating Humanitarian Space: A Case Study of Somalia
INDONESIA: Terror, Resistance and Trauma in Papua
THAILAND: Southern Thailand: Moving towards Political Solutions?
COTE D'IVOIRE: Natural Resources in Cote d'Ivoire: Fostering Crisis or Peace?
AFGHANISTAN: Bandits, Borderlands and Opium Wars
IRAQ: The Politics of Governance and Federalism
CONFLICT RESOLUTION: Early Recovery: An Overview of Policy Debates and Operational Challenges
TERRORISM: A Study of al-Qa'ida's Violence Against Muslims
ARMED CONFLICT: Conflict Barometer 2009
PEACEKEEPING: Robust Peacekeeping: The Politics of Force

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CAR: Reshaping Political Space? The Impact of the Armed Insurgency in the Central African Republic on Political Parties and Representation
This contribution examines the relationship between violent conflict and the crisis of representation in an African country by focusing on political parties and rebel movements. It deals with the 'chicken or the egg' question of whether inadequate representation leads to violent conflict or whether violent conflict damages representative democracy. Political parties are assumed to represent social interests; in the context of the plural society of the Central African Republic (CAR) these are mainly ethnoregional interests. As will be shown, political parties have not performed well in their representative role, for a number of reasons (from objective obstacles such as organizational shortcomings and lack of means of communication to rent-seeking behavior). Numerous rebel movements claim to put local and national grievances on the agenda; they are heard and therefore seem to address these issues better than parties. Parties and rebel movements therefore compete to a certain extent, but political parties lose out in the course of war and in peace processes, not least because they are no longer regarded as the main actors by international mediators. German Institute of Global and Area Studies // Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien (10 December)

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TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: No Other Life: Gangs, Guns, and Governance in Trinidad and Tobago
In the last decade, gun-related homicides in Trinidad and Tobago (T & T) have risen about 1,000 per cent. While higher rates of crime have permeated much of the island of Trinidad in particular, overwhelmingly violence is concentrated in relatively small, hilly, and dense urban areas on the east side of Port of Spain’s central business district. On a per capita basis, the eastern districts of Port of Spain are among the most dangerous places on the planet and, as a whole, the murder rate for Port of Spain is comparable to that of Baghdad (Kukis, 2009). One rationale for this escalation of crime and murder is that few consequences accrue to those responsible. In most years, fewer than 20 per cent of violent crimes are ever solved. Even when police and prosecutors mount a case, it generally takes several years before it is brought to trial. During the intervening period, ample opportunities exist to kill or intimidate witnesses. After being criticized for inaction for years, T & T's government is taking clear steps towards legal reforms that might prevent such practices. Presently being debated by the country's parliament is anti-gang legislation, including powers to allow the tapping of telephones and the holding of suspects caught with illegal guns for up to 60 days without bail. Small Arms Survey // Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva // Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (17 December)

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SOMALIA: Creating Humanitarian Space: A Case Study of Somalia
In the past few years, the situation in Somalia has repeatedly been described as one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. In early 2009 over three million people were estimated to be in need of aid, a 77% increase in less than a year. It has been estimated that as many as two-thirds of Mogadishu's population might have fled their homes). Many of these forcibly displaced persons gathered along the roads outside Mogadishu in an area known as Afgooye, with numbers ranging from 200.000 to over 400.000. However, the amount of aid they have received is far from the largest in the world; in fact, it is closer to none. The starting point for this paper is to ask why this is so. A key factor relates to the lack of humanitarian space in Somalia. This is a much used term, often used to describe the level of access for humanitarian agencies and the environment which they operate in. But the actual meaning of the term remains somewhat unclear. In this paper, I will investigate both why and how humanitarian needs can be put in focus and practically addressed through a clearer understanding of 'humanitarian space'. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees // Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford (17 December)

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INDONESIA: Terror, Resistance and Trauma in Papua, Indonesia
Papua recently attracted the attention of the international community, and in particular of Australia, when Australian citizen Drew Grant was killed in a shooting incident in the early morning of 11 July 2009 in the Freeport Mining area in Tembagapura, Papua. This killing ignited a series of violent acts in the world largest gold and copper mine site. Police are yet to provide an explanation of the incident. The shooting immediately sparked speculation in the public and international media forcing a highly-ranked representative of the Indonesian Government to provide a public statement. On 16 July the Minister of Defence, Yuwono Sudarsono, claimed that a 'rogue element' in the military might have been involved in the shooting. Despite the lack of strong evidence, the police arrested and detained 9 civilians on 20 July 2009 and charged them with murder, even though the unidentified gunmen continued to engage in acts of shooting. This story sounds familiar for many Papuans, recalling memories of a similar incident in August 2002, when one Indonesian and two American teachers were shot dead in an ambush at the Freeport Mining site. Over time, terror and resistance have become a dialectic that leaves the Papuans traumatised and forms an unbreakable cycle. This current pattern of terror needs to be understood within Papua's broader historical context and the legacy of the region's early history. This paper does not intend to provide an in-depth examination of Papua's history. Rather, it aims to reflect on the prolonged terror, resistance movements and trauma that have characterised Papua to date. Australian National University // Centre for International Governance and Justice (9 December)

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THAILAND: Southern Thailand: Moving towards Political Solutions?
On taking office, Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva pledged to reclaim policy on the southern insurgency from the military. But a year of distracting fights between supporters of the establishment and an ousted populist leader has meant little progress in resolving violence in the South. Despite glimpses of new thinking in Bangkok, the weakness of the government and its reliance on the military for political support have meant the top brass still dominates policymaking in the predominantly Malay Muslim South. Harsh and counterproductive laws remain in force and there are no effective checks on abuses by the security forces. Alternative policies have not been seriously explored and, after a temporary reduction in violence in 2008, the attacks are rising again. It is time for the government to follow its words with actions if it wants to move forward with a political solution. Military sweeps from July 2007 curtailed violence in the South, although abusive detention as part of these operations may have backfired and increased resentment among Malay Muslims. While the number of attacks so far in 2009 is still below the peak since the insurgency restarted in 2004, the trend is upward. Incidents have become more brutal and bomb-making techniques more advanced. The insurgency has proved resistant to military suppression. The slaughter of ten men praying in a mosque in June heightened concerns over deepening communal tension and the consequences of government projects to arm civilians. International Crisis Group (18 December)

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COTE D'IVOIRE: Natural Resources in Cote d'Ivoire: Fostering Crisis or Peace? The Cocoa, Diamond, Gold and Oil Sectors
Cote d'Ivoire is at a decisive stage in its political history. Since 2002, the country has been ridden by violent conflict and political unrest. After nearly ten years, Cote d'Ivoire is expecting to hold presidential elections that may end a continued situation of 'neither peace nor war', following the end of armed fighting between the government and rebel forces at the end of 2004. The conflict has often been attributed to questions of identity, and the process of identification remains a sensitive and decisive factor with regard to fair elections and social peace. Another important issue, the role of natural resources in the conflict in Cote d'Ivoire, has largely been neglected and deserves further attention if the peace process is to lead to some stability. This brief investigates the extent to which natural resources have contributed to causing and sustaining this armed conflict and how natural resource exploitation can contribute to peace and development in Cote d'Ivoire. For this purpose, we have broadened the scope of natural resources in this study to comprise not only extractive resources but also agricultural resources such as cocoa, for until recently the country has depended more heavily on cocoa and coffee than on extractive resources. Bonn International Center for Conversion (9 December)

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AFGHANISTAN: Bandits, Borderlands and Opium Wars in Afghanistan
This paper explores the linkages between the drugs economy, borderlands and 'post conflict' state-building in Afghanistan. It does this through a fine grained analysis of Sheghnan, a remote district on the Afghan-Tajik border in the north-east. The paper explores the historical development of the border and borderland through a number of different phases: first, its pre-state origins as an open border on the edges of contending empires; second, a closed border within a buffer state - a Cold War construct that divided Soviet and US spheres of influence; third, the prising open of the border after the collapse of the former Soviet Union and civil wars in both countries, during which the region reverted to its eighteenth century status as an open frontier; fourth, 'post conflict' peace-building in Afghanistan and Tajikistan, during which the uneven attempts by both countries to 'sharpen the edges' of the border influenced its institutions and economic practices. Danish Institute for International Studies (7 December)

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IRAQ: Iraq's New Reality: The Politics of Governance and Federalism
Iraq is a society in transition, grappling with the universal challenges of establishing forms of governance and allocating power within the institutions of the state. It is nearly seven years since the US invasion of Iraq, and vigorous debates about the future of Iraq continue internally and externally. The Iraqi Constitution adopted in 2005 remains a source of debate for several reasons. Much of the instability within Iraq is due to struggles between the various political, sectarian and ethnic groups that constitute Iraq's population. Iraq has always been ethnically and religiously diverse and has historically allowed minority communities to co-exist in harmony with the majority populace. Yet, the current situation has fuelled discord and even violence between these groups. Much of the contention has arisen due to differences in perceptions of how sectarian tensions can be resolved; whether through the creation of a strong central government focused on keeping the country politically unified, or by allowing a decentralized power structure in which groups are granted political self-expression. Center for International Governance Innovation (1 December)

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CONFLICT RESOLUTION: Early Recovery: An Overview of Policy Debates and Operational Challenges
Early recovery in conflict settings has gained momentum in policy circles, but there are divergent views on what precisely it is, and how it differs from other approaches to promoting peace and recovery, such as peace-building and stabilisation. This paper argues that early recovery has functioned primarily as a way of framing activities, strategies and approaches that take place in humanitarian and transitional contexts, and that its added value is yet to be consistently proven. As early recovery has been used as a catch-all term for a broad range of issues, policy-makers and practitioners need to explicitly define what problem or set of problems they are seeking to address. This paper explores the evolution of early recovery as an approach, maps early recovery in relation to peace-building, stabilisation and state-building and examines operational issues surrounding early recovery in different contexts experiencing conflict. The paper does not endeavour to establish a definitive ‘take’ on early recovery, which would not necessarily be helpful given the existence of multiple interpretations, but rather seeks to inform discussions among policy-makers and practitioners about the added value of framing activities and approaches in terms of early recovery. Overseas Development Institute // Humanitarian Policy Group (7 December)

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TERRORISM: Deadly Vanguards: A Study of al-Qa'ida's Violence Against Muslims
In a 2007 online forum, al-Qa'ida's second in command Ayman al-Zawahiri, confronted questions about the organization’s use of violence and especially violence against Muslims. Zawahiri and other leaders have defended al-Qa’ida’s use of violence, arguing that their operations do not kill Muslims, and on the rare occasions they do, such individuals are apostates or martyrs. Since the inception of al-Qa'ida, the organization has claimed to represent Muslim interests around the world declaring itself the vanguard of true Islam, and the defender of Muslim people. Unfortunately for al-Qa'ida, their actions speak louder than their words. The fact is that the vast majority of al-Qa'ida's victims are Muslims: the analysis here shows that only 15% of the fatalities resulting from al-Qa’ida attacks between 2004 and 2008 were Westerners. This report used Arabic media sources to study the victim’s of al-Qa’ida’s violence through a non-Western prism. The results show that non-Westerners are much more likely to be killed in an al-Qa'ida attack. Combating Terrorism Center // West Point (7 December)

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ARMED CONFLICT: Conflict Barometer 2009
A total of 365 political conflicts was counted in 2009. Among those were seven wars and 24 severe crises, amounting to 31 conflicts fought out with the use of massive violence. Sporadic violent incidents occurred in 112 conflicts, which were therefore classified as crises. Nevertheless, the majority of all conflicts were conducted non-violently, with 108 cases being classified as latent and 114 as manifest conflicts. Compared to the previous year, the total number of conflicts rose slightly from 353 in 2008 to 365. The total number of non-violent conflicts rose by ten, as did the number of crises. In contrast, the number of highly violent conflicts decreased considerably from nine wars and 30 severe crises, i.e. a total of 39 highly violent conflicts, in 2008 to 31 highly violent conflicts in 2009. Four of the seven wars had already been fought out on this level of intensity in the previous years: Afghanistan (Taliban), Somalia (Islamist groups), and Sri Lanka (LTTE/northern and eastern Sri Lanka) all being wars for the fourth year running, while Pakistan (various Islamist militants) was a war for the third year running. The remaining three wars, Israel (Hamas/Palestine), Pakistan (Taliban - various tribes), and Yemen (al-Houthi) had all been classified as severe crisis in 2008. Thus, their escalation to wars indicated an intensification of already massive violence. Heidelberg Institute on International Conflict Research // University of Heidelberg (15 December)

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PEACEKEEPING: Robust Peacekeeping: The Politics of Force
Lack of consensus on an accepted definition of what actions fall legitimately into robust peacekeeping is part of a larger strategic debate over peace operations at the United Nations. When Ralph Bunche established the principles of peacekeeping in 1947—impartiality, consent, and the minimum use of force—he was applying them to a much smaller peacekeeping office in a nascent United Nations, in a world with very different expectations of the institution. Importantly, he was applying them prior to the tragedies of Rwanda and Srebrenica from which more robust peacekeeping mandates and doctrines of protection of civilians emerged. Peacekeeping has changed dramatically over the past fifty years. Of the 17 UN peace operations deployed in 2009, only five (UNFICYP, UNIFIL, UNDOF, UNTSO , UNMOGIP – all of which were originally deployed prior to 1979) adhere to the original monitoring model of peacekeeping. The initial principles governing engagement of peacekeepers remain relevant today, but do not offer clear guidance to force commanders in certain circumstances—where, for example, the minimum use of force to protect civilians is not 'no force,' or even force only in self defense. The appropriate use of force is central to the peacekeeping debate because it challenges each of the principles. Using force challenges the UN's ability to be recognized as an impartial player; the definition of 'minimum force' can become subjective once it passes beyond the threshold of self-defense; and the use of force has increased difficulties in gaining consent in places like Sudan, where force is seen as a challenge to the sovereignty of the government. Center on International Cooperation // New York University (31 December)

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