Conflict Onsets and Terminations

Data on conflict onsets and terminations are currently only available for state-based armed conflict. The data refer to the onset and termination of conflict “episodes”. Because conflicts can restart, in most instances it is impossible to determine when a conflict has truly “terminated”. Conflict episodes on the other hand, cannot restart.

A conflict episode is a period of armed conflict that results in 25 or more battle deaths in a calendar year. A conflict can be made up of multiple conflict episodes, each of which is at least one year in duration.

A conflict episode onset is recorded when fighting between two parties who were not in conflict in the previous year results in 25 or more battle deaths in a calendar year.

A conflict episode termination is recorded when fighting between two formerly warring parties results in fewer than 25 battle deaths in a calendar year.

Conflicts episodes can terminate in a number of different ways: by peace agreement; victory; or ceasefire. The fighting can also simply stop, or the number of battle deaths can fall below the 25 per calendar year threshold (in which case the termination will be coded as ‘other’). See Definitions.

State-Based Conflicts